NBA Picks #1 & #2: 707 Golden State Warriors @ 708 Cleveland Cavaliers
Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play
Pick: Over 193.5 (Play up to 195)
Odds: -107 / 1.93 on Pinnacle Sports OR -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker OR -104 / 1.96 on Matchbook
Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play
Pick: Golden State Warriors (-4) (Play up to -5)
Odds: -105 / 1.95 on Pinnacle Sports OR -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes OR -105 / 1.95 on Matchbook
Detailed Write Up:
Once again, Golden State couldn't solve the problems that Cleveland's defense caused them on Game 3. For me, it was surprising that it happened given that Cleveland's defense didn't do anything new in comparison to what they had done in the first two games of the series. However, the Warriors scored 36 points in the fourth quarter and that was a good sign for how they will behave going forward. Lee can't defend, but he is a huge upgrade over any big that the Warriors' frontcourt player offensively, as not only he can catch the ball and finalize it, besides being able to pass for the open man. Therefore, no wonder in the 13 minutes that Lee played, the Warriors outscored the Cavaliers by 17 points.
Surely Kerr will use Lee more tonight, maybe even 20 minutes and with that, the trade off for the Warriors will be evident: more offense and less defense. Golden State's big problem so far in the series has been their inability to set a fast pace that would surely favor them more. They have been allowing Cleveland to set their own slow tempo and with that, the Cavaliers will slowing down the game, especially when they grab an offensive rebound. However, it seems that Kerr has realized that his team needs to change that for tonight's game:
"I think it's improving what we do" Steve Kerr said "We won 67 games this year. We're a good team when we're playing our style. There are some things we can do to try to get back to our style, our pace. Our biggest adjustment is being more like us, and playing like us."
The Warriors will then make some full court pressure tonight in order to avoid Cleveland to burn the clock. With that, the pace of this game will be faster tonight and with an improved Warriors' offense, I expect this game to be the first high scoring game of the series. Therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here. As I believe Golden State will finally have a good offensive night, I expect them to comfortably beat the Cavaliers in here by setting up a fast pace to expose their clear depth edge. So, I'll be taking the Warriors in here as well.