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Pro Pick From
Dr. Ed Meyer

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(At current odds)

2014-10-19T20:00:00.000Z 2014-10-19T20:00:00.000Z - NFL

455 Miami Dolphins
vs.
456 Chicago Bears

Date

Sport/Type

Pick

Score

Odds

Size

W/L

$

10/19/2014

NFL Totals

OV MIA/CHI

27-14

48

2

L

-220

Analysis

The Bears are off an impressive 27-13 win over the Falcons in Atlanta.  Matt Forte caught ten passes, but the longest was only 16 yards.  This fact activates a trend that reads, “Chicago is 17-0 OU the week following a win in which Forte did not have a 25-plus yard reception.”  The SDQL text is:

Bears:Matt Forte:p:longest reception<25 and p:W and NB and date>=20111101

This one is 2-0 OU this season.

In addition, Chicago is 6-0 OU (+13.67 ppg) after a game in which Brandon Marshall had a reception of 30+ yards and 6-0 OU (+13.67 ppg) after a win in which Alshon Jeffery had a reception of 20+ yards.

As a team, the Bears are 12-0 OU versus any team with fewer wins after a win, zooming over by an average of 16.0 ppg.  The SDQL for this one is:

team=Bears and p:W and wins > o:wins and NB and date>=20121007

The Bears are a team that likes to throw the ball and the Dolphins have a remarkable OU dichotomy based on the average number of rushes per game of their opponent.  If Miami is 0-9 OU when facing a team that has rushed the ball at least 27 times per game season-to-date.   Their next active date, at this time, is week nine when they host the Chargers.  If the Dolphins are facing a team that has rushed the ball FEWER than 27 times per game season-to-date, they are a perfect 9-0 OU.  Here is the SDQL text:

team=Dolphins and oA(rushes)<27 and date>=20130922

This one qualifies against the Bears, as Chicago has rushed the ball only 24.5 times per game in 2014.  To see the other half of the dichotomy, simply switch the direction of the greater-than sign. 

Take the OVER.

MTi’s FORECAST: CHICAGO 34 Miami 28

Pick Creation Time:
10/18/2014 2:42 PM
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