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Pro Pick From
Dr. Ed Meyer

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(At current odds)

2014-10-19T20:00:00.000Z 2014-10-19T20:00:00.000Z - NFL

463 Atlanta Falcons
vs.
464 Baltimore Ravens

Date

Sport/Type

Pick

Score

Odds

Size

W/L

$

10/19/2014

NFL Totals

OV ATL/BAL

7-29

50½

3

L

-330

Analysis

The Ravens have the most efficient offense in the league according to the metric of percentage of possessions in which they scored points.  Baltimore has scored on 49.68% of their possessions this season, and this is ahead of the Cowboys, Chargers, Patriots, Colts and Saints, respectively.

Atlanta has the most efficient offense in the league, when ranked by yards per play, as the Falcons are averaging 6.41 yards per offensive snap this season.

Nonetheless, the Falcons are in a tough spot.  They are facing a potent offense and their scoring has plummeted recently.  Over their past four games they scored 56, 28, 20 and 13 points, respectively.  This is a spot in which they simply must take risks on offense.  They are not going to hold the Ravens to something like 20 points.  To win this game they are going to have to score 30-plus.  They can’t afford to adopt a wait-and-see attitude or try to set up the run.  The offenses should dominate here.

Atlanta has been in this spot before and they have gone OVER.  The Falcons are 8-0 OU as a road dog when they scored fewer points than expected in each of their last two games.  The SDQL text is:

team=Falcons and AD and p:dps<0 and pp:dps<0 and date>=20071201

Note that both games from last season went over by double-digits.

In addition, Atlanta is 6-0 OU (+11.25 ppg) after any home game in which Julio Jones caught a pass for 20-plus yards, which can be verified by running this SDQL text:

 Falcons:Julio Jones:p:longest reception >= 20 and p:H and date>=20130101

The Ravens are in a comfortable spot.  They are off a big win and they have a revenge game vs the Bengals next and this game will probably be for the division lead.  The Ravens are 6-0 as a home favorite off a win as a favorite, going over by an average of 11.6 ppg.  The SDQL for this one is a straightforward:

team=Ravens and HF and p:WF and date>=20121001 

The Falcons only way to compete here is to jump on top early with an aggressive down-the-field passing game.  Take the OVER.

MTi’s FORECAST: BALTIMORE 33 Atlanta 30

Pick Creation Time:
10/18/2014 2:38 PM
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