Coach Fletcher’s NFL
3 Pick Package
Sunday, October 11
10am Washington at Atlanta
The Pick 3*
Atlanta Money Line - 305
Pinnacle
Are the Falcons for
Real?
I guess that’s a good question because I have heard a lot of
people say that they are NOT for real.
Despite being 4-0, there are many Falcon doubters.
I believe they have played a better schedule, not
overwhelmingly better, but better nevertheless.
They have beaten the Eagles, Giants, Cowboys, and Texans. The Skins have beaten the Rams and Eagles and
lost to the Dolphins and Giants.
Some of the overall numbers may support a Redskin win or a
Redskin cover depending on your view of the Falcons. These teams aren’t carbon copies of one
another.
The Skins run for 139.5 per game to just 113.5 for the
Falcons. They even give up less on the
ground – only 78 yards compared to just 85.2 for the Falcons. Atlanta has the edge offensively in the air
averaging 289.8 to the Skins 243.5.
Defensively in where the Skin backers shout from the
mountain top. While both teams seem to
field an excellent rushing defense, the protection of passing yards goes to the
Skins in a big way. They are allowing
210 yards per game in the air while the Falcons are allowing 305.2. This leads the Redskin defense to allow 101.5
fewer yards per game than the Falcons.
They both have played the Giants and Eagles so we can look
at those games for comparison. Atlanta
played the eagles in their first game of the season and won 26-24 as 3 point
home dogs. They only averaged 3 yards a
carry against the Eagle defense but did pass for 290 with 2 turnovers. The Eagles outgained the Falcons 399 to 395
and also committed 2 turnovers.
Turnovers will be an important part of this pick as we shall see later.
The Redskins played the Eagles last week and won 23-20. They ran for 127 yards ((3.96 per carry) and
passed for 290. They turned the ball
over once and got it back twice. They
held the Eagles to 87 yards in 18 carries (4.66 per carry) and just 233 yards
in the air. Those numbers make you
wonder why the Eagles didn’t run the ball more!
The Skins got 417 total yards against the Eagles who gained 320. Comparing this game surely looks good for the
Skins.
The Giant game was different because the Skins lost that
game 32-21 in New York and the Falcons won their game, 24-20, also in New
York. The Falcons outgained the Giants
412- 388. The Giants were successful in
shutting down the Falcon running game, the only team to have done so. The Skins also outgained the giants,
393-363.
The Falcon doubters can point to the fact that they have
been in some shoot-outs. But that may
also be a Falcon strength. The Falcons are average 34.2 points per game, nearly
15 more points than Washington who averages 19.5. The Falcons give up more points, 23.2 to 19.8
for the Redskins, but their scoring could simply be too potent for a Redskin
team not even averaging 20 points per game.
Washington has also played 3 of their first 4 games at home. The one game they played on the road was the
32-21 loss to the Giants.
New Falcon Coach Dan Quinn has a simple approach. He wants the offense to and his defense not
to be careless. Give him a big plus on
the first one. The Falcons turned the
ball over twice in game 1 and hasn’t turned it over one time since then. The Redskins have 7 turnovers. The Atlanta defense also bought in to the
coach’s philosophy. They have created 8
turnovers for a plus 6 margin. The Redskin
defense has collected just 3 turnovers for a minus four. That is a big edge that could well make a
difference in this game.
The defensive numbers can also be fine-tuned a little. In Atlanta’s 48-21 victory last week, the
score stood at 42-0 after 3. The 21
points scored by Houston were essentially in garbage time.
Davonta Freeman has gained 342 total yards in his last two
games and is a big step up in the Falcon rushing offense. Julio Jones has 34 receptions.
The Skins have lost 5 straight road games and I believe they
will lose their 6th straight here.
Their tight end, Jordan Reed, will miss this one after injuring himself
last week. The two top Redskin
cornerbacks will also be on the sidelines.
DeAngelo Hall and Chris Culliver are both out. I like the Falcons to stay undefeated here.
The Pick 3*
Atlanta Falcons Money Line -305 Pinnacle