Coach Fletcher’s CFB Package 2

Saturday, October 10

Game 1   318   4pm   Oklahoma State at West Virginia  ML  -260   The Greek   3*

Game 2   332   11 am Miami, Ohio at Ohio   -16   2*  William Hill  2*

Game 3   334   12 pm  Kent State at Toledo   -14.5   Buy ½   -125   Pinnacle   2*

Game 4   372    5 pm  Miami, Florida at Florida State   ML   -330   Pinnacle   3*

Game 5   380    7 pm  California at Utah   2*   -7.0   -125   Buy Half   William Hill

Game 1   Oklahoma State at West Virginia (318)

The Pick   3*   West Virginia   Money Line   -260   The Greek

The 5-0 Oklahoma State Cowboys take on the 3-1 West Virginia Mountaineers in West Virginia today.  This will be the Cowboys stiffest test of the year for now.

The teams have played a pretty comparable schedule so comparisons will be a little more helpful than they normally are. 

The Cowboys opened up as 21 point chalk versus Central Michigan and won unimpressively 24-13.  They outgained Central Michigan 419-343 but didn’t impress. 

Game 2 was another softie, this time Central Arkansas.  The Cowboys went into the game 37.5 favorites and couldn’t even score 37 in a 32-8 win.  This time, however, the offense picked up and gained 414 in the air.  Ok St held Central Arkansas to 220 total yards.

UTSA was the third victim of the Cowboys 69-14.  The 25 point favorites opened up their ground game and netted 217 on the ground and 312 in the air.  UTSA did manage 346 total offensive yards in a balanced effort.

The next two matches were against stiffer opponents.  As 3 point favorites the Cowboys barely beat a weak Texas Longhorn team 30-27.  Texas shut down the OK ST running game allowing only 103 yards on 46 carries.  The Cowboys picked up 292 in the air and did outgain the Texas 395 to just 290. 

Game 5 at Kansas State was another nip and tuck fight.  The Cowboys remained undefeated and took the contest 36-34.  Once again their ground game couldn’t get off the ground running for only 49 yards in 27 carries.  However, the Cowboys lit up the sky with 35-56 for 441 yards.  K State collect 352 total yards.

The Mountaineers opened their season with a 44-0 rout of Georgia Southern.  Nobody gave it much thought but the Eagles have bounced back with 4 straight wins.  They haven’t beat much, but toppled Western Michigan 43-17; the Citadel, 48-13; Idaho, 44-20 and Louisiana Monroe 51-31.  So after being shut down by West Virginia, the Eagles have averaged 35.5 points per game.  WV ran for 185 yards and threw for 359.  Georgia Southern ran for 195 on 57 carries and was able to throw for just 29 yards.  The Mountaineers nabbed 5 turnovers.

Game 2 was a laugher against Liberty 41-17.  The Mountaineers actually weren’t close to covering the 32.5 spread.  West Virginia gained 485 to 372 for Liberty.

Game 3 was also an easy one in retrospect.  The Terrapins of Maryland got worked over by the Mountaineers by a 45-6 count.  The West Virginia crew easily covered the 16.5 line.  W. Virginia uncorked 601 yards of offense (304,297).  Maryland turned the ball over 6 times.  Maryland managed 326 total yards of offense.

West Virginia took on Oklahoma last week and the results were not good.  In the game until a horrible 4^th quarter, the Mountaineers succumbed to Oklahoma 44-24 and turned the ball over 5 times while losing.  They gained 196 on the ground and 173 in the air while Oklahoma ran for just 107 but passed for 320.

What we have here are two teams that are somewhat opposite.  The Cowboys prefer to pass the ball (345 yds per game) and the Mountaineers prefer to run the ball (214 per game).  They average nearly the same, 38.2 points per game for OK State and 38.5 points per game for W. Virginia.  OK State allows 310 per game and W. Virginia allows 337.

Oklahoma State has turned it over 7 times and collected 10 turnovers.  West Virginia has turned it over 7 times (in last 2 games) and collected 13.

West Virginia has performed well against Oklahoma State winning in 2013 at home 30-21 as almost 20 point dogs and winning last year at OK State 34-10 as 3 point favorites.

The Cowboys had a little luck in their pockets in order to win last week’s game.  They were mistakenly awarded a first down late in the first half that led to a touchdown.  The Big 12 acknowledged the mistake which must have made Kansas State thrilled.

Oklahoma State is likely to put some pressure on W. Virginia.  They have had 22 sacks so far this year.    West Virginia has 10 interceptions.  The Mountaineers are going to have to play more disciplined however having suffered 21 penalties for 235 yards in their last 2 games.  You might think about making a first half wager on the Mountaineers.  They have outscored opponents in the first half 74-0 this year if the opponent is someone other than Oklahoma. 

Both teams have lost key defenders.  The Mountaineers lost Karl Joseph at safety and The Cowboys lost Ryan Simmons with a knee injury. 

Coach’s Conclusion:

I believe the key to this game will be West Virginia’s ability to run the ball.  Even if they average only 4 yards per carry that will be enough to control the clock and the game.  It will also make the passing game stronger.  A lot will also depend on the health of 2 OK State running backs.  Chris Carson and Rennie Childs missed their last games and Coach Gundy has yet to say if they will suit up Saturday.  OK State’s running game will suffer tremendously if these guys are out.  The home edge should be big for the Mountaineers as well.  QB Skyler Howard stunk up the joint las week but should come back here, especially if the Mountaineers focus on the run first.  Both Wendell Smallwood and Rushel Shell are averaging near 5 yards per carry and should be able to run here. 

I’m taking West Virginia.

The Pick   3*   West Virginia   Money Line   -260   The Greek