Coach Fletcher’s CFB
Package 1
Game 2 12 noon
Saturday, Oct.10
Kent State Golden Flashes at Toledo Rockets (334)
The Pick 2*
Toledo -14 buy ½ -120
Pinnacle
The 4-0 Toledo Rockets are living up to their nickname this
year. Undefeated and with a 3-0-1 record
against the spread, the Rockets are making their fans happy today. The Golden Flashes of Kent State come in with
a 2-3 mark straight up and a 2-2-1 records ATS.
Power ratings are crucial to this game if you are taking
Toledo. The average rating of Toledo’s
opposition is 32.2 while Kent State foes check in at 24. In Jeff Sagarin’s somewhat questionable and
somewhat reliable computer ratings, Toledo is all the way down at 35 and Kent
State is #150. That’s quite a leap.
Kent State’s 2 wins came against Delaware State as a 30
point favorite and against Miami, Ohio as a 10.5 favorite. They have lost to Illinois, 52-3; Minnesota,
10-7; and Marshall 36-29. If you throw
out the two wins against inferior foes, the Golden Flashes average only 13
points per game. The Kent State defense
isn’t too shabby. They did hold the Gophers
to just 10 points. Nobody has rushed for
more than 134 against them and no one has passed for more than 325. That’s actually pretty good. They have turned the ball over 9 times and
the defense has grabbed 14 turnovers – an impressive ratio. Of course, 7 of those TO’s were courtesy of
Delaware and Miami, Ohio.
Toledo started the season with an upset of Arkansas, winning
16-12 as 23 point dogs. We’ve since
learned that Arkansas isn’t that good, but their other 2 losses were to Texas
Tech and Texas A&M, which puts Toledo in good company. The Razorbacks defeated Tennessee last week.
Toledo then succeeded in beating Iowa State, Arkansas State
and Ball State consecutively. Their
rushing defense has been very strong other than Iowa State who ran for 207
against the Rockets. Arkansas only ran
for 103 while Arkansas State and Ball State were held to less than 1 yard per
carry. As far as pass defense goes, the
numbers are a little high but teams other than Iowa State had little luck
running and went to the air for yards.
Other than Arkansas, no one has thrown for more than 274. The offense has turned it over just 4 times
and the defense has snagged 8 turnovers.
Last year Toledo beat Kent 30-20 at Kent. They are 2-2 ATS and 6-1 SU since 1992. In games played at Toledo, the Rockets are
2-0 ATS and 4-0 SU.
Both teams have balanced offensive attacks which could be
bad news for Kent. If Toledo stops the
run, Kent may not have enough of a passing attack (154.4 yards per game) to
overcome the lack of running.
The Rockets have caught the attention of some as they are
currently ranked 24th in some polls.
The Rockets have a stingy defense that may well give the Golden Flashes
hot flashes instead. Last week Ball
State came in averaging a MAC high 232 yards per game and took home just 26
yards against the Rockets front line. Kent
State comes into this game with the MAC’s top defense and a similar fate may be
awaiting them.
The teams have the 2nd and 3rd best
rushing attacks in the MAC. The Rockets
are hoping for a return for running back Kareem Hunt who is questionable. Hunt has missed the last 2 games but can
hopefully go Saturday. Toledo QB Phillip
Ely came via transfer from Alabama and has 4 TD passes opposed to 1 pick. He has yet to be sacked this season. Kent QB Colin Reardon has 6 TD passes and 3
backs and the nation’s 5th worst completion percentage at 45.9.
Coach’s Conclusion
The ideal scenario for this game would be for the Rockets to
shut down the Kent running game and force them to the air. If that happens, Katy bar the door because
the Rockets may run away with it. If
Kent tries, however unsuccessfully, to grind it out on the ground, it could be
a low scoring tussle which would not favor the big spread. My thoughts are that the Rockets will have a
lead and even if it doesn’t happen until the late part of the 3rd
quarter, Kent will have to pass and the rout will be on.
The Pick 2*
Toledo -14 buy ½ -120 Pinnacle