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Pro Pick From
Dr. Ed Meyer

Make this pick

(At current odds)

2014-10-24T03:25:00.000Z 2014-10-24T03:25:00.000Z - NFL

103 San Diego Chargers
vs.
104 Denver Broncos

Date

Sport/Type

Pick

Score

Odds

Size

W/L

$

10/23/2014

NFL Sides

Chargers

21-35

+9

2

L

-220

Analysis

Since the start of the 2013 NFL season, these two teams are 1-2 in the league in completion percentage.  The Chargers are number one at 69.56% and the Broncos are close behind at 68.75%.

Denver has had trouble hosting teams with a good passing attack, as they are 0-19 ATS at home a team that has completed better than 64.2% of their passes season-to-date and has averaged more than 175 passing yards per game.  Check it out with this SDQL text:

team=Broncos and H and oS(COMP)/oS(passes)>0.642 and oA(PY)>175 and season>=2006

Denver has been scoring a lot of points lately and they have covered three straight after starting the season 0-3 ATS.

This, however, is no reason to play on them, as they are 0-18 ATS as a six-plus point favorite when they scored more points than expected in each of their last three games and they are facing a team that has allowed less than 320 yards passing and averaged at least 250 yards of offense per game season-to-date.  The SDQL here is:

team=Broncos and line<=-6 and 0<p:dps and 0<pp:dps and 0<ppp:dps and oA(o:PY)<320 and oA(TY)>250 and date>=19981011

The Chargers have been rock solid as a big dog vs a streaking team.  San Diego is 8-0 ATS as a 6-plus point road dog vs a team that has won their last two games.  The SDQL text is:

team=Chargers and o:streak >=2 and line>= 6 and season >=2002 

Finally, San Diego is 6-0 SU and 6-0 ATS after a loss as a favorite, covering by an average of 12.75 ppg.  Grab the points.

MTi’s FORECAST: DENVER 24 San Diego 20

Pick Creation Time:
10/23/2014 9:20 AM
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