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Pro Pick From
Dr. Ed Meyer

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(At current odds)

2014-10-19T20:00:00.000Z 2014-10-19T20:00:00.000Z - NFL

457 Cleveland Browns
vs.
458 Jacksonville Jaguars

Date

Sport/Type

Pick

Score

Odds

Size

W/L

$

10/19/2014

NFL Sides

Browns

6-24

-6

3

L

-330

Analysis

The Jaguars got up for their divisional rival last week and nearly got their first win of the season.  They trailed 16-14 when the Titans blocked a field goal attempt with 12-seconds remaining.

This loss will have three effects.  First it will deflate the Jaguars, who should have a defeatist attitude here, second, it will cause the Browns to take this match-up seriously and third, it gives us a decent line.  All point to a play on Cleveland.

Last week Bortles attempted 46 passes and the Jaguars ran the ball only 18 times.  This imbalance does not bode well for their chances here.  Since the start of the 2013 season, Jacksonville is 0-5 ATS after a road game in which they had at least three times as many passing yards as rushing yards, losing straight up by an average of 27.6 ppg and falling short of the linesmakers’ expectations by an average of 18.3 ppg.  Check it out with this SDQL text:

 team=Jaguars and p:PY/p:RY >= 3 and p:A and season >= 2013

Jacksonville lost each one of the five games by MORE than 17 points.  In their two qualifying games from this season, they lost 41-10 and 44-17 and they were down at least 21-0 before they got any points on the board in both games.

The Browns are not a team that will take a weak opponent lightly.  Cleveland has a blue-collar mentality and will play smashmouth ball on both defense and offense and this will cut the heart out of the already deflated Jaguars.

The Browns are a reliable 7-0 ATS when facing a team with no wins after week 2, 6-0 ATS on the road when facing a team that has averaged less than 28 minutes of possession time season-to-date and 10-0 ATS vs a non-divisional opponent before playing at home.

Yes, the Browns have allowed an average of 4.99 yards per carry this season and this is third worst in the league.  However, the Jaguars won’t be able to take advantage of this weakness because they have a weak running game and they will be playing from behind.  The evidence is there.  Jacksonville is 0-11 ATS (-10.05 ppg) when facing a team that has allowed more than 4.5 yards per carry season-to-date.  The SDQL is:

team=Jaguars and oS(o:RY)/oS(o:rushes) >= 4.5 and season >= 2012 

The Browns have a brutal rushing attack.  They are third in the league in yards rushing per game behind the Seahawks and Cowboys and that’s some good company.  They’re one of only two teams in the league that has rushed the ball on over 50% of their plays this season.  The Jaguars are dead last in the league in rushing yards per game.  This is not a good match-up for them.  Jacksonville is 0-6 ATS vs a team that has gotten less than 55% of their first downs through the air, failing to cover by an average of 16.3 ppg.  The Jaguars have scored an average of 8.8 ppg in this spot, while allowing 157.7 yards rushing.  Cleveland should dominate the time of possession and the running game should set up the passing game nicely.  This one should not be close.

MTi’s FORECAST: Cleveland 35 JACKSONVILLE 0

Pick Creation Time:
10/18/2014 2:35 PM
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