The Jaguars got up for their divisional rival last week and
nearly got their first win of the season.
They trailed 16-14 when the Titans blocked a field goal attempt with
This loss will have three effects. First it will deflate the Jaguars, who should
have a defeatist attitude here, second, it will cause the Browns to take this
match-up seriously and third, it gives us a decent line. All point to a play on Cleveland.
Last week Bortles attempted 46 passes and the Jaguars ran
the ball only 18 times. This imbalance
does not bode well for their chances here.
Since the start of the 2013 season, Jacksonville is 0-5 ATS after a road
game in which they had at least three times as many passing yards as rushing
yards, losing straight up by an average of 27.6 ppg and falling short of the
linesmakers’ expectations by an average of 18.3 ppg. Check it out with this SDQL text:
p:PY/p:RY >= 3 and p:A and season >= 2013
Jacksonville lost each one of the five games by MORE than 17
points. In their two qualifying games
from this season, they lost 41-10 and 44-17 and they were down at least 21-0
before they got any points on the board in both games.
The Browns are not a team that will take a weak opponent
lightly. Cleveland has a blue-collar
mentality and will play smashmouth ball on both defense and offense and this
will cut the heart out of the already deflated Jaguars.
The Browns are a reliable 7-0 ATS when facing a team with no
wins after week 2, 6-0 ATS on the road when facing a team that has averaged
less than 28 minutes of possession time season-to-date and 10-0 ATS vs a
non-divisional opponent before playing at home.
Yes, the Browns have allowed an average of 4.99 yards per
carry this season and this is third worst in the league. However, the Jaguars won’t be able to take
advantage of this weakness because they have a weak running game and they will
be playing from behind. The evidence is
there. Jacksonville is 0-11 ATS (-10.05
ppg) when facing a team that has allowed more than 4.5 yards per carry
season-to-date. The SDQL is:
team=Jaguars and oS(o:RY)/oS(o:rushes) >= 4.5 and season
The Browns have a brutal rushing attack. They are third in the league in yards rushing
per game behind the Seahawks and Cowboys and that’s some good company. They’re one of only two teams in the league
that has rushed the ball on over 50% of their plays this season. The Jaguars are dead last in the league in
rushing yards per game. This is not a
good match-up for them. Jacksonville is
0-6 ATS vs a team that has gotten less than 55% of their first downs through
the air, failing to cover by an average of 16.3 ppg. The Jaguars have scored an average of 8.8 ppg
in this spot, while allowing 157.7 yards rushing. Cleveland should dominate the time of
possession and the running game should set up the passing game nicely. This one should not be close.
MTi’s FORECAST: Cleveland 35 JACKSONVILLE 0