The Lions beat the Vikings last week with their defense.  However, they were facing a QB making the first road start of his career.  Bridgewater threw three interceptions and was sacked eight times.  Detroit’s offense simply will not be able to keep pace with that of the Saints.

New Orleans is 2-3 on the season and they have had two weeks off to contemplate their position and plan for the rest of the season.  The division is still theirs for the taking.  The Saints have been spectacular with an extra week to prepare, going 7-0 ATS (13.43 ppg) after a bye, covering by an average of 13.4 ppg and winning every game by at least a TD.  See for yourself with this SDQL text:

team=Saints and p:week + 2=week and season >= 2009

Detroit does not match up well with teams that can throw the ball successfully.  The Lions are 0-9 ATS since 2011 vs a team that has completed at least 65% of their passes and have averaged at least 250 passing yards per game season-to-date.

Also, Detroit is 0-6 ATS the week after any win in which they had a TD pass.  They lost every game straight up and they are 0-2 in this spot this season.  The SDQL text is:

team=Lions and p:PTD>0 and NB and p:W and date>=20131001

Since week two this season, the Lions have scored points on only 18.7% of their offensive possessions and this is dead last in the entire league.  The Jaguars are second worst at 21.3% and they are followed by the Titans at 23.3%, the Raiders at 25.78% and the Vikings at 26.09%.  All of these teams - except the Lions – have QB issues.

The Lions are 4-2 and have no urgency or desperation.  The Saints, however, can’t afford to drop to two games below 500.  This is a game in which the team that is mentally tougher should prevail.  The Saints have the much better head coach and they should be able to impose their will on the Lions, who will commit penalties and get frustrated when things don’t go their way.

MTi’s FORECAST: New Orleans 30 DETROIT 20