For what it’s worth, yesterday was good bounce-back day for me. Almost everything went right for me, with the sole exception of the Tampa Rays, who somehow managed to turn a 4-3 win into a 5-4 loss in the bottom of the 5th and then turned a 7-6 lead into an 8-7 loss in the bottom of the 10th , costing me a sweep last night.
The White Sox have now won 5 of their 27 games and two of those wins have come in the last two days against what is obviously an even worse than I thought Rays team. This morning, I officially moved the Rays into my “do not bet on, fade or pass only” category along with the White Sox and a couple of other dregs of the league.
On the plus side, the Dodgers managed to win both their 1st 5 and full games behind Tyler Glasnow in a 4-2 win. Cards won their 1st 5 at the Mets behind Sonny Gray despite a 5th inning blowup. The Astros easily cashed their 1st 5 against the Rockies with a run in the 2nd and three more in the 3rd on the wy to a 12-4 blowout win at Coors. Finally, The Mariners scored the only run of the first five innings and that was enough for George Kirby, who held the Diamondbacs scoreless over 7 innings in a 3-1 home win.
I finished +10.44 units for the day, leaving me ( and I’m embarrassed to admit it) -6.14 units for the season.
I’m just going to keep doing what has always worked for me and hopefully I’ll be back in the money soon.
Today is a new and beautiful day and the MLB season is still very young, so there’s plenty of time left to make some money. We have a full slate of games today and there are a few that I like, so let’s get to it. Here’s my card. I’m going right back to mostly parlays. We are celegrating our bithdays with the family ths afternoon. Today is my birthday and tomorrow is my wife's.
ML Parlays
|
Team #1
|
Team #2
|
Odds
|
Units
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ATL 1st 5 ML
|
DET 1st 5 ML
|
16-
|
2
|
|
ATL 1st 5 ML
|
HTN `1srt 5 ML
|
135
|
2
|
|
ATL 1st 5 ML
|
HTN ML
|
139
|
2
|
|
ATL 1st 5 ML
|
SEA 1st 5 ML
|
175
|
2
|
|
ATL ML
|
DET 1st 5 ML
|
164
|
2
|
|
ATL ML
|
HTN `1srt 5 ML
|
138
|
2
|
|
ATL ML
|
HTN ML
|
142
|
2
|
|
ATL ML
|
SEA 1st 5 ML
|
178
|
2
|
|
DET 1st 5 ML
|
HTN `1srt 5 ML
|
144
|
2
|
|
DET 1st 5 ML
|
HTN ML
|
148
|
2
|
|
DET 1st 5 ML
|
SEA 1st 5 ML
|
184
|
2
|
|
HTN `1srt 5 ML
|
SEA 1st 5 ML
|
157
|
2
|
|
HTN ML
|
SEA 1st 5 ML
|
161
|
2
|
|
|
|
|
|
Side
|
PITT 1st 5 ML
|
|
-107
|
2
|
Here’s how I see things shaking out today.
CLEV @ ATL
The 19-8 Guardians spite the first two games of this series with the 18-76 Braves, winning 4-2 last night after losing the first game 6-2 on Friday.
Starting Pitchers
1:35
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
CLEV
|
Lively
|
(2/2)
|
(0/2)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ATL
|
Elder - R
|
(1/1)
|
(1/1)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Edge – ATL, I think
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
RIP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
CLEV
|
8
|
2
|
9
|
3
|
78.0%
|
6
|
0.29
|
1
|
1.03
|
1
|
2.31
|
2
|
29.3%
|
3
|
8.4%
|
7
|
ATL
|
8
|
3
|
8
|
3
|
75.0%
|
7
|
0.42
|
9
|
1.15
|
8
|
3.36
|
10
|
22.6%
|
16
|
6.9%
|
1
|
Edge – CLEV
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
CLEV
|
5.26
|
4
|
0.319
|
11
|
111
|
6
|
0.150
|
9
|
7.0%
|
28
|
1.0
|
9
|
37.1%
|
13
|
5.7%
|
28
|
19.7%
|
23
|
ATL
|
5.96
|
1
|
0.363
|
1
|
128
|
1
|
0.184
|
2
|
8.9%
|
15
|
1.5
|
6
|
37.9%
|
20
|
9.0%
|
2
|
21.5%
|
20
|
Edge – ATL
Conclusion: Last season, the Guardians big problem was that they just couldn’t hit. So afr this season, that hasn’t been an issue. The Guardians have suddenly morphed into a very good hitting team. The problem here is that as good as the Guardians have hit, the Braves have hit better. They rank 1st in runs per game, wOBA, wRC+and 2nd in ISO and barrel rate. The Braves have a solid bullpen, but so far the Guardians per has been exceptional, ranking 1st in runs allowed per inning pitched and WHIP, 2nd in ERA, 3rd in K rate, and 6th in strand rate. That brings us to the two starting pitchers. The Guardians will start Ben Lively who has started two games with both grading as above average. He has given up a total of 3 runs on 8 hits (2 HRs) and 1 walk over 11.1 innings with 14 Ks. Lively also started 12 games for the Reds last season with 7 grading as above average and 5 grading as below, but posted an unimpressive 1.39 WHIP and lousy 5.48 ERA over 65.2 innings. Byrce Elder has only started one game for the Braves tossing 6.2 scoreless innings v the Marlins, but it was the Marlins. Last season Elder started 31 games with 19 of the grading as above average, with a 11.6 WHIP and 3.31 ERA. We don’t have much of a statical profile on either guy here. Three starts isn’t a large enough sample size, but based on their respective track records, I have to give Elder a small edge here
Pick – ATL 1st 5 and full game ML in a series of parlays
KC @ DET
The 17-11 Royals split the first two games of this series at the 15-12 Tigers, with rhe Royals winning 8-0 on Friday and the Tigers winning 6-5 yesterday.
Starting Pitchers
1:40
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
KC
|
Wacha - R
|
(2/5)
|
(2/5)
|
1.27
|
3.81
|
3.85
|
3.33
|
3.89
|
3.99
|
0.315
|
0.355
|
21.4%
|
7.2%
|
DET
|
Skubal - L
|
(4/5)
|
(5/5)
|
1.10
|
1.82
|
2.12
|
2.25
|
2.49
|
2.51
|
0.203
|
0.236
|
31.3%
|
4.5%
|
Edge – DET
Bullpens
N/A – This is a 1st 5 only bet
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
KC
|
4.71
|
12
|
0.313
|
16
|
100
|
16
|
0.160
|
7
|
8.4%
|
20
|
3.2
|
3
|
35.5%
|
27
|
8.9%
|
4
|
19.0%
|
27
|
DET
|
3.96
|
22
|
0.291
|
26
|
89
|
24
|
0.128
|
24
|
8.6%
|
18
|
1.8
|
5
|
40.1%
|
8
|
7.4%
|
10
|
24.6%
|
8
|
Edger – KC
Conclusion: The Royals are the better hitting team this season and by a fairly large margin. However, by contrast, Tarik Skubal is a better starting pitcher than Michael Wacha. Wacha’s been solid, but Skubal’s statistical profile is clearly better across the board. While the Royals may be the better team, the Tigers have the clearly better starting pitcher.
Pick – DET 1st 5 ML in a series of parlays
HOU @ COL
The 8-19 Astros won the first game of this series at the 7-20 Rockies in Mexico City last nightt after a rare Friday night off.
Starting Pitcher
4:05
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
HTN
|
Valdez - L
|
(1/2)
|
(1/2)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
COL
|
Gomber - L
|
(2/5)
|
(2/5)
|
1.48
|
4.32
|
5.24
|
4.92
|
4.18
|
4.53
|
0.347
|
0.361
|
18.2%
|
10.0%
|
Edge – HTN
Bullpens
N/A – This is a 1st 5 bet only
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
HOU
|
3.92
|
20
|
0.328
|
6
|
115
|
4
|
0.142
|
14
|
8.2%
|
22
|
-3.8
|
29
|
33.2%
|
30
|
6.7%
|
17
|
17.2%
|
30
|
COL
|
3.65
|
23
|
0.302
|
22
|
75
|
28
|
0.132
|
23
|
7.1%
|
27
|
-2.4
|
27
|
40.9%
|
4
|
6.3%
|
21
|
26.3%
|
4
|
Edge – None
Conclusion: It sure looks like we have wo bad teams facing off in this one. The stats say that the Astros offense is a little better, but last night it was the Astros’ bats lighting it up. Both bullpens stink, so best stay away. That leaves the two starting pitchers. The 30-year-old southpaw Framber Valdez landed on the Astros' 15-day IL on April 9 due to left elbow inflammation. He has been activated for today’s game after throwing a 40-pitch bullpen session on Wednesday, and he will likely be on some sort of a pitch count. When healthy, Valdez is an elite starting pitchers with a history of quality starts abd a superb GB rate. Austin Gomber has now started 5 games with 2 above average starts, 1 average start and 2 below average ones. He has given up 12 runs on 26 hits and 3 walks over 25 innings with 20 Ks. Gomber made 27 starts last season, but was just too inconsistent to rely on. I’s rather have Valdez, even on a piotch count that Gomber and away from Coors the Astros should hit better than the Rockies.
Pick – HTN 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays
PITT @ SF
The 114-14 Pirates have split the first two games of this series with the 13-15 Giants at Oracle Park. With the irates winning 4-3 yesterday and the Giants winning 3-0 on Friday
Starting Pitchers
4:05
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
PITT
|
Jones - R
|
(5/5)
|
(0/5)
|
0.83
|
2.79
|
2.95
|
3.19
|
2.20
|
2.15
|
0.266
|
0.278
|
24.8%
|
3.6%
|
SF
|
Winn - R
|
(4/5)
|
(1/5)
|
1.04
|
3.54
|
4.38
|
3.94
|
3.44
|
3.65
|
0.282
|
0.334
|
21.3%
|
8.3%
|
Edge – PITT
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
RIP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
PITT
|
6
|
5
|
8
|
8
|
66.6%
|
22
|
0.53
|
17
|
1.27
|
16
|
4.15
|
19
|
25.4%
|
6
|
10.8%
|
25
|
SF
|
3
|
5
|
4
|
2
|
60.3%
|
30
|
0.68
|
29
|
1.37
|
21
|
5.82
|
29
|
20.0%
|
25
|
8.4%
|
7
|
Edge – PITT
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
PITT
|
4.04
|
20
|
0.304
|
21
|
89
|
24
|
0.114
|
28
|
10.6%
|
3
|
-0.8
|
18
|
39.6%
|
11
|
6.4%
|
19
|
24.0%
|
11
|
SF
|
4.04
|
20
|
0.312
|
17
|
100
|
16
|
0.137
|
22
|
8.6%
|
18
|
0.5
|
12
|
38.1%
|
18
|
6.0%
|
13
|
21.7%
|
19
|
Offense
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
PITT
|
4.04
|
20
|
0.304
|
21
|
89
|
24
|
0.114
|
28
|
10.6%
|
3
|
-0.8
|
18
|
39.6%
|
11
|
6.4%
|
19
|
24.0%
|
11
|
SF
|
4.04
|
20
|
0.312
|
17
|
100
|
16
|
0.137
|
22
|
8.6%
|
18
|
0.5
|
12
|
38.1%
|
18
|
6.0%
|
13
|
21.7%
|
19
|
Edge - SF
Conclusion: Neitherr tem hits very well, but much to my surprise, the Giants have the better wOBA, wRC+ and ISO even they their respective runs per game is identical. So Ill give the Giants a very slight edge. However, when look at these two young starting pitchers, Jared Jones has the slightly better ratio of good starts to bad, with a better, WHIP, ERA, wOBA and metrics than Keaton Winn, as well as a higher K rate and a lower walk rate. It’s close because both have pitched well, but Jones has been the better starting pitcher.
Pick – PITT 1st 5 ML in a side bet
ARIZ @ SEA
The 12-16 Diamondbacks were beaten by the 15-12 Mariners 3-1 last night, after losing the first game of this series 6-1 on Friday night.
Starting Pitchers
4:10
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
ARIZ
|
Pfaadt - R
|
(3/5)
|
(2/5
|
1.17
|
4.97
|
3.49
|
3.88
|
3.76
|
3.64
|
0.314
|
0.301
|
22.1%
|
4.9%
|
SEA
|
Gilbert - R
|
(4/5)
|
(1/5)
|
0.80
|
1.87
|
3.51
|
3.30
|
3.20
|
3.15
|
0.230
|
0.302
|
27.8%
|
6.3%
|
Edge -SEA
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
RIP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
ARIZ
|
2
|
8
|
5
|
6
|
65.4%
|
26
|
0.55
|
20
|
1.39
|
23
|
4.19
|
20
|
17.9%
|
30
|
9.3%
|
13
|
SEA
|
2
|
2
|
6
|
1
|
80.0%
|
3
|
0.34
|
5
|
1.03
|
1
|
2.49
|
3
|
24.9%
|
8
|
8.1%
|
3
|
Edge – SEA
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
ARIZ
|
5.73
|
2
|
0.332
|
5
|
109
|
9
|
0.143
|
11
|
9.8%
|
8
|
0.2
|
15
|
34.6%
|
29
|
7.3%
|
13
|
17.9%
|
29
|
SEA
|
3.72
|
24
|
0.302
|
22
|
101
|
15
|
0.126
|
25
|
9.9%
|
7
|
-1.2
|
23
|
44.8%
|
2
|
7.1%
|
14
|
27.4%
|
2
|
Edge – ARIZ
Conclusion: After a slow start, the Mariners have clawed their way to the top of the suddenly mediocre AL West, while the Diamondbacks continue to flounder, hovering under .500. Although the stats say that the Dbacks should be the better hitting team here., it hasn’t looked that way in the first two games of this series. The Mariners have the much better pen and today the better starting pitcher. Brandon Pfaadt has actually pitched well, but Logan Gilbert has been better with a better ratio of good to bad starts with a better WHIP, ERA and wOBA, as well as a better K rate.
Pick – SEA 1st 5 ML in a series of parlays