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    09/07/2011 10:47 PM
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College Basketball Betting Odds Air Force Falcons vs Boise State Broncos Free Pick

Tonight the Air Force Falcons will take on the Boise State Broncos in the Quarterfinals of the Mountain West Conference Tournament at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas Nevada. The game has a start time of 3:00 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on CBSSN. Current Vegas betting odds have the Broncos listed as 11 point favorites, while the total is set at 128. 

Analysis:  The Air Force Falcons did not have a good year and they finished the regular season on a two game losing streak, but they started their run in the MWC Tournament with a mild 68-61 win over New Mexico. The Falcons are still just just 14-16 on the year and should be home once the post season tournaments begin. The Falcons are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 neutral site games, but just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win. Air Force has not been a very good offensive team this year, as they come in ranked 219th in scoring (65.6 ppg), 30th in shooting (47.2%), 64th in 3 point shooting (37.2%) and 288th in FT shooting (65.7%). Defensively the Falcons have been decent this year, ranking 128th in points allowed (64.6 ppg), 229th in defensive FG% (44.0%) and 266th in 3 point defense (35.8%). 

The Boise State Broncos come in as the top seed in the MWC thanks to sweeping the series with San Diego State. The Broncos have won 14 of their last 15 games and are 24-7 overall, while going 14-4 in the MWC.  The Broncos have gone 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a S.U. win and 17-4 ATS in their last 21 vs the Mountain West. The Broncos have been a solid offensive team this year, ranking 91st in scoring (70.6 ppg), 71st in shooting (45.9%), 16th in 3 point shooting (39.4%) and 53rd in FT shooting (72.7%). Defensively the Broncos have been very good as well, ranking 23rd in points allowed (59.7 ppg), 84th in defensive FG% (40.9%) and 28th in 3 point defense (30.6%).  

Pick: I will look at the Under in this game. The Broncos have been a solid offensive team this year, but lost in that is the fact they they have played excellent defense as well as they have allowed just 59.7 ppg overall, while in their last 6 games they have allowed just 51.3 ppg. This defense is getting stronger and the Falcons are not a good offensive team, especially away from home where they have averaged just 59 ppg for the year. The Falcons have struggled some on defense of late, but still they are a decent defensive team and the Broncos have averaged just 65 ppg away from home this year. I expect a rather slo paced game that will be played in the lower 120s. 

 

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