It's week 6 of the 2012/13 College Football Season and that means that there are just 2 weeks left before the initial BCS Rankings are released, so thought we should take a look at the updated odds on which teams are going to have the inside track towards claiming the BCS Title this year. Below I will break down the Top 5 favorites to win it all on January 7, 2013. The Odds listed are courtesy of Sportsbook.ag and updated as of October 1st.
The SEC just continues to dominate, as this conference has won six straight National Championships with four different winners in that stretch. There’s no reason to believe that there won’t be at least one team in the title game once again this year from this conference, and the inside edge is clearly going to go to the No. 1 team in the land right now, the Alabama Crimson Tide (+175). The Tide is 5-0 and is outscoring their opponents by 33.4 ppg and have truly dominated on the defensive side of the ball once again, ranking 2nd in total defense (191.6 ypg) 1st in scoring defense (7 ppg). Their schedule really on has one stumbling block and that is a road trip to LSU on November 3rd. Still this is the best team in the land and should be playing for it all once again in January.
The Florida State Seminoles are currently ranked 3rd in the AP Poll, but have the 2nd best BCS Title odds at +400. The Noles are off to a 5-0 start, but the last two weeks have shown a little vulnerability in beating Clemson in a shootout and then struggling for much of the game vs South Florida. Still this is a very formidable team with a Heisman Trophy candidate at QB in EJ Manuel, plus a defense that took a hit vs Clemson, but is still ranked 3rd overall (200.8 ypg) and 7th in points allowed (11.4 ppg). They are explosive on offense (51 ppg) and their defense will be top 5 all year. If they can navigate road dates at Miami and Virginia Tech and a home date with Florida to end the year then they may just be facing the Tide for the Title in January.
The LSU Tigers come in 4th in the AP poll and 3 in odds (+500). This is a team that is fading a bit after a couple of weak performances against weak opponents the last 2 weeks. LSU started off 3-0 and were outscoring teams by 38 ppg, but then cam Auburn and Towson (yes Towson) and all that changed. LSU was an 18.5 point favorite at Auburn but won the game just 12-10, while in a home game vs Towson (yes Towson) they were 43.5 point favorites yet only won 38-22. The Tigers offense seems to be a bit better than last year, but their defense looks a bit weaker than last years team that allowed just 11 ppg. They do have a tough road ahead as Road dates at Florida, Texas A&M and a home date with Alabama are still on the horizon, but still if their only loss is vs Bama, a one loss LSU team may still be able to sneak back into the BCS title game.
Next we go "Between the Hedges" as the Georgia Bulldogs check in at number 4 on our list. The Bulldogs are ranked 5th in the AP, but 4th in Title odds at +600. Georgia is another team in the AP top five that just didn't impress this past week, winning 51-44 over Tennessee as 14 point home favorites. The offense has looked good this year, averaging 48.2 ppg, but thanks to some early season suspensions the defense has looked shaky, allowing 22 ppg and 370 ypg. This defense will come around and still be one of the best in the nation. Georgia has a road trip to South Carolina this week and their annual date with Florida ahead, but they also avoid both LSU and Alabama out of the West, giving them a solid shot at making it back to the SEC title game. A better showing in that game.
Lastly let's take a look at the Oregon Ducks as they come in ranked 2nd in the AP Poll but just 5th in odds (+700). The Ducks are yet another team that had an uninspired win this past week, beating Washington State 51-26 in a game that was much closer at the half. There is really nothing wrong with the Ducks on offense (52.4 ppg), but there are some questions on a defense that is ranked 54th overall and 85th vs the pass. Still it would be fun to see this offense go up against the Bama defense, but unfortunately I don't expect that to happen. The Ducks play in the watered down PAC-12, and that will not go well with the BCS Rankings, plus road dates vs Arizona State, USC and Oregon State could also give them a loss or two.
Here are the the next 10 in order of their odds to win the whole shebang. USC (+1000), South Carolina (+1500), West Virginia (+2000), Notre Dame (+2500), Texas (+2500), Kansas State (+3000), Florida (+3000), Oklahoma (+6000), Louisville (+10000) and TCU (+10000).
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Tony George's Big 12 Power Ratings as of Oct 1st.
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