Saturday night baseball and I will have a Free Pick in the game between the Kansas City Royals and the Los Angeles Angels, which will be played at Angel Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for a 9:05 PM (Eastern) start time and the game will be televised locally.

Betting Odds

Kansas City          +120
Los Angeles          -130

Over/ Under: 7.5 U -125

Last night the Kansas City Royals took game 1 of this series behind some solid pitching of Jason Vargas and their amazing bullpen. The win put the Royals at 4-0 for the year, while the loss by the Angels dropped them to 2-2 on the year. 

A look at some tends for this game shows us that Kansas City is 10-2 in their last 12 games as an underdog, 6-1 in Guthrie's last 7 road starts and 14-3 in their last 17 games vs. a right-handed starter. The Over is 14-3-1 in the Royals' last 18 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30, while the Under is 18-6-2 in Guthrie's last 26 road starts. For the Angels they are 9-2 in their last 11 games as a favorite of -110 to -150 and 41-19 in their last 60 home games, but just 1-5 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter. The Over is 18-8 in Angels last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, while the Under is 46-18-3 in Weaver's last 67 home starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. 

Getting the ball tonight for the Royals will be right-hander Jeremy Guthrie, who went  13-11 with a 4.32 ERA in 32 starts for the Royals last year. In his carer he has faced the Angels 13 times, with 12 of them being starts and has gone 3-5 with a 4.43 ERA in those games, but he is 2-2 with a solid 3.13 ERA in 5 career starts at Angel Stadium. 

Toeing the rubber for the Halos tonight will be righty Jered Weaver, who is 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA in 1 start this year so far. That loss was vs the Mariners. Jered is coming off a solid 18-9 year, which included a 2-0 mark with a 1.38 ERA in 2 starts vs the Royals. Overall in his career Jered has made 12 starts vs the Royals and is 7-4 with a 2.21 ERA in those starts.    

Pick:  Going with the Under in this one. The Royals pitching has been very strong in the early going as they have allowed 2 runs or less in 3 of their 4 games and a big part is that excellent bullpen, which keeps those late runs from being scored. Jeremy Guthrie has a nice 3.13 ERA in this park, while Weaver has a 2.21 ERA in 12 starts vs the royals in his career and that includes a 1.38 ERA in 2 starts vs them last year. The Angels offense has scored 2 runs or less in 3 of their first 4 games and the Royals offense has really overachieved this year so far. They don't really have consistent pop like they have shown. The Under is 46-18-3 in Weaver's last 67 home starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5 and 18-6-2 in Guthrie's last 26 road starts. I look for about 5 or 6 runs here at most.   

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