Tonight's Free Pick will be in the Elite 8 an a game between the Wisconsin Badgers and the Arizona Wildcats, which will take place at the Staples Center in Los Angeles, California. The game has a start time of 6:09 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on TBS. Current Vegas betting odds have the Wildcats listed as 1.5 point favorites, while the total is set at 132.
Analysis: The Wisconsin Badgers had another very nice year and came into the tournament as a #1 seed in the West. The Badgers have now won 9 games in a row and have gotten to the Elite 8 with wins over coastal Carolina, Oregon and north Carolina. for the year the Badgers have gone 34-3 overall, which includes a perfect 9-0 mark on neutral courts. Wisconsin has gone 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Pac-12 and 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 non-conference games, but just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win. The Badgers have been a good offensive team this year, ranking 55th in scoring (72.5 ppg), 19th in shooting (48.0%), 114th in 3 point shooting (35.7%) and 11th in FT shooting (76.5%). The defense for this team has been excellent this year, ranking 10th in points allowed (57.2 ppg), 130th in defensive FG% (42.3%) and 311th in 3 point defense (37.4%).
The Arizona Wildcats have won 14 games in a row and continue to look like one of the teams that have a shot at knocking off the Kentucky Wildcats. They still have some work to do and will be looking for revenge in this game after getting knocked out by Wisconsin in last year's Big Dance. The Cats have taken out Texas Southern, Ohio State and Xavier to make it to the Elite 8 and are now 34-3 on the year. Arizona has gone 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. the Big Ten and 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games following a S.U. win, but just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games. The Wildcats have been a very good offensive team this year, ranking 22nd in scoring (76.6 ppg), 8th in shooting (48.6%), 92nd in 3 point shooting (36.0%) and 102nd in FT shooting (71.2%). Defensively the Wildcats have been very good this year, ranking 14th in points allowed (59.0 ppg), 30th in defensive FG% (39.5%) and 88th in 3 point defense (32.6%).
Pick: I will be going with the Under in this game. Both of these defenses have been very good this and have really excelled at making their opponents play halfcourt offense. This game should be no exception. Wisconsin had a tough time vs Carolina's uptempo offense for much of their game on Thursday, but the Wildcats do not play that fast and they will be happy to grind it our with the Badgers here. Arizona has been playing great defense of late as they have allowed just 58.7 ppg during their 14 game win streak and while this is a very efficient Wisconsin offense I feel that the Cats will have the ability to stop them in this one. The Arizona offense has exploded at times down the stretch, but they haven't played a defense like this yet as they will be facing a Badgers defense has allowed just 57.2 ppg on the year and just 61.2 ppg on neutral courts. Just too much defense and too much half court offense to think this one can hit the 130s at all.
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