Tonight the Illinois State Redbirds will do battle with the Old Dominion Monarchs at Constant Convocation Center in Norfolk, Virginia in the 2nd round of the NIT Tournament. The game has a start time of 8:00 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on ESPN U. Current Vegas betting odds have the Monarchs listed as 3.5 point favorites, while the total is set at 128.5.
Analysis: The Illinois State Redbirds come in hot as they have won 7 of their last 8 games, which includes a shocking win over Wichita state in the MVC Tournament. The next day they took a loss to Northern Iowa in the MVC finals, which put them in the NIT Tournament instead of the NCAA Tourney. Illinois State is 22-12 overall and 7-5 on the year. Illinois State has gone 6-1 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games, but just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win. The Redbirds have been an average offensive team this year, ranking 143rd in scoring (68.7 ppg), 170th in shooting (43.6%), 157th in 3 point shooting (34.7%) and 78th in FT shooting (72.0%). The defense for this team has been good this year as they come in ranked 65th in points allowed (62.4 ppg), 105th in defensive FG% (41.6%) and 86th in 3 point defense (32.5%).
The Old Dominion Monarchs had a very solid year as have gone 25-7 overall, which includes a perfect 18-0 mark at home. The Monarchs finished 2nd in Conference USA this year, but lost their shot at a Big Dance invite when they lost a quarterfinal game to Middle Tennessee in the conference tourney. ODU has gone 17-7 ATS in their last 24 home games, but just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss. The Monarchs have not been a good offensive team this year, ranking 225th in scoring (65.3 ppg), 180th in shooting (43.4%), 241st in 3 point shooting (32.9%) and 245th in FT shooting (67.3%). The defense for this team has been excellent this year, ranking 10th in points allowed (56.7 ppg), 48th in defensive FG% (39.9%) and 42nd in 3 point defense (31.2%).
Pick: I know the new shot clock rules are expected to increase scoring, but teams have to still be able to score and that is something that ODU has not allowed teams to do this year, especially at home, where they have allowed just 52.4 ppg on 37.6% shooting for the year. In their first home game in the NIT Tournament, under the new rules, they allowed a very good Charleston Southern offense just 56 points. Now they face a weaker Illinois State offense that has scored just 66.5 ppg on 41.4% shooting on the road for the year. The Redbirds can hit their free throws, but other than that they are not a god shooting team and ODU is an excellent defensive team. On offense ODU is not so good, as they come in scoring just 65.3 ppg overall and 67.8 ppg at home, while Illinois State has allowed just 62.5 ppg overall and 66.2 ppg on the road. The last 9 ODU games have not produced more than 127 points in any game, with an average of 117.3 ppg being scored in those games. We also note that ODU has allowed just 52.4 pg in their last 8 games overall. Hard to see either team hitting 64 points in this one. It should be a slow paced game (even with the new rules) and the defense should really have a good showing here, especially that ODU defense. 62-58 sounds about right for this one.
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NCAA Basketball: Who Can Win it All?
Teddy Covers and Steve Fezzik from Pregame.com discuss who they feel will win it all in the NCAA Tournament, while throwing in some teams that have a chance to make a deep run in the tournament.