Wednesday night college basketball and we will see the Kentucky Wildcats travel to the Humphrey Coliseum to take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs. The game has a start time of 7:00 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on the SEC Network. Current Vegas betting odds have the Wildcats listed as 18.5 point favorites, while the total is set at 124.5.
Analysis: The Kentucky Wildcats come in as the top ranked team in the nation and the last team left without a blemish on their record. For the year Kentucky is now 27-0, including 14-0 in the SEC and 8-0 in true road games. Kentucky has gone just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game, while the favorite is 3-8 the last 11 in the series. The Cats have been a solid offensive team this year, ranking 33rd in scoring (74.7 ppg), 44th in shooting (46.9%), 183rd in 3 point shooting (34.2%) and 122nd in FT shooting (70.1%). The defense for this team has been very good as they come in ranked, 2nd in points allowed (52.6 ppg), 1st in defensive FG% (34.2%) and 4th in 3 point defense (27.5%).
The Mississippi State Bulldogs have not had a great year so far and they come in having lost 2 in a row, with both losses coming at home. For the year the Bulldogs are just 12-15 overall and 5-9 within the SEC. This is not a team playing very good ball at all right now. Mississippi State has gone 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. The Bulldogs have not been a good offensive team this year, ranking 296th in scoring (62.1 ppg), 217th in shooting (42.8%), 309th in 3 point shooting (30.7%) and 144th in FT shooting (69.8%). Defensively the Bulldogs have been solid, ranking 89th in points allowed (62.7 ppg), 90th in defensive FG% (41.0%) and 61st in 3 point defense (31.5%).
Pick: Yes I will be gong with the Under here. In their last game the Cats put up a million points vs Auburn, but that was in an uptempo game vs a defense that has been very bad this year This game will not be like that. The Bulldogs know how to play defense as they have allowed just 62.1 ppg on 40.4% shooting on their home floor this year and Kentucky has not been a very good offensive team on the road where they have averaged just 66.4 ppg overall and just 65 ppg in the SEC (Regulation). We also note that the Under is 4-1 in the Cats last 5 games after scoring 90 points or more. The Cats offense really clicked in their last game, but they cannot be happy that they allowed 75 points in the game. That is well out of the norm for a team that had allowed just 52.5 ppg in their previous 12 SEC games (Regulation). I expect them to fully focus on defense tonight and they should be able to vs a Mississippi State team that has averaged just 59 ppg in their last 5 games and just 62.9 ppg at home for the year. 128 points were scored in the earlier matchup, but I expect this one to be played between 115 and 120 points. 68-50 sounds about right here.
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