The NBA on Christmas Day and we will see the Cleveland Cavaliers travel to South Beach to take on the Miami Heat. The game has a start time of 5:00 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on ABC. Vegas odds have the Cavaliers listed as 5.5 point favorites, while the total sits at 195.

Analysis: Lebron James makes his return to South Beach for the first time since being traded back to Cleveland. The Cavaliers started the year slow, but they have turned it on of late and are now 17-10 on the year. Cleveland is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing home record, but just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. The Cavaliers have been a solid offensive team this year, ranking 8th in scoring (103.6 ppg), 6th in shooting, 12th in 3 point shooting and 12th in FT shooting. The defense for the Cavs has been rather average, ranking (14th in total points allowed (99.6 ppg), 25th in defensive FG% and 10th in 3 point defense. 

The Miami Heat come in off a horrible home loss to the Sixers, in which they led the game by 23 points at one points. The Heat have now lost 3 of their last 4 games and are just 13-16 on the year, including just 5-10 at home. Miami is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 1 days rest, but just 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 home games. The Heat have not been a good offensive team this year, ranking 26th in scoring (94.2 ppg), 13th in shooting, 14th in 3 point shooting and 23rd in FT shooting. The defense for Miami has been solid sol far, ranking 8th in points allowed (97.8 ppg), 27th in defensive FG % and 21st in 3 point defense.    

Pick: Im going to go with the Under in this one. The Heat have been a poor offensive squad this year, averaging just 94.2 ppg overall, including 93.6 ppg at home. Making matters worse for the offense is the fact that they will probably without Bosh in this one, as he is listed as doubtful. This offense will take on a Cleveland defense that has been playing much better and has allowed 91 points or less in 3 of their last 5 games. The Cleveland offense has been good this year, but we could see some jitters from Lebron, plus they will be taking on a Miami team that has played good defense this year, allowing just 97.8 ppg overall and 98.4 ppg at home. They have clamped it down even more of late, allowing just 95.2 ppg in their last 5 games. The Heat don't have the firepower to run with the Cavs, especially without Bosh, so I expect a slow down game from them on offense and then to rely on their defense to try an come away with the win. I can see this one played in the 180s.  

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