NFL week 11 kicks off on Thursday night, as the Indianapolis Colts travel to Nashville, Tennessee to take on the Tennessee Titans. The game has a start time of 8:30 pm (Eastern) and be will televised on the NFL Network. Vegas odds have Indianapolis listed as 3 point favorites, while the total sits at 42.
Analysis: Indianapolis is in control of the division with a two-game lead over the Titans, but they come in off a horrible 30 points home loss to the Rams on Sunday. Indianapolis has beaten league heavyweights Seattle, San Francisco and Denver but its three losses have come against three clubs without a winning record. The Clts offense is led by QB Andrew Luck, who has completed 58.8% of his passes for 2198 yards, with 14 Tds and 6 INTs. Although Luck threw for 353 yards in the loss to the Rams, he was picked off three times - matching his total from the previous eight games. Trent Richardson has been a bust for the Colts so far and they have had some injuries to their WR corp, losing the likes of Reggie Wayne. Defensively the Colts have allowed just 21.4 ppg, but they really struggle vs the run, allowing 126.6 ypg, which is 26th in the league.
The host Titans could see their division title hopes disappear with a loss Thursday to the front-running Colts. In their last game the Titans took an embarrassing home loss to the previously winless Jaguars. In that game the Titans may have als lost QB Jake ocker to a season ending foot injury. Ryan Fitzpatrick, who lost two starts in place of Locker last month, threw for 264 yards and two touchdowns on Sunday but his fumble with just over 2 1/2 minutes to play stalled Tennessee's comeback. Running back Chris Johnson broke out of his season-long doldrums with 150 yards and two touchdowns before the bye week, but was limited to 30 yards on 12 carries by the Jaguars. He should bounce back some vs this porous Colts run defense. The Titans did not commit a turnover in their first four games but have coughed up the ball 13 times in their last five. Defensively, the Titans are 9th overall and 8th vs the pass, but just like the Colts they struggle vs the run, allowing 114.9 ypg, which is 21st in the league.
Pick: I will be going with the over in this one. They scored just 8 points vs the Rams last week, but Andrew Luck still had 353 yards passing in the game, so it was turnovers that did them in. Prior to last week's game, the Colts had scored 63 points in their 2 previous games and they had hit 27 or more in 5 of their previous 6 games. This is still a very good offense, despite what happened last week. Now as far as their defense, they have been bad as they come in allowing 428 ypg and 31.7 ppg over their last 3 games. The Tennessee defense has also been roughed up a bit over their last 3 games, allowing 27 ppg over that stretch, and we note that those three games were vs weak offensive teams in Jacksonville, St Louis and San Fran. On offense the Titans will be without Locker, but Fitzpatrick has been solid this in his place this year and should be able to put up some points on this weak Colts defense. I know the Under is 13-3 the last 16 in this series, but with two weak defenses and 2 solid offenses we should be able to hit at leas 45 in this one.
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NFL Free Picks: Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans Betting
What pro football bettors need to know about betting Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans on Thursday (11/14/13) - a free pick from Pregame.com's Steve Fezzik, with Brady Kannon.