Fight Night 46 takes place in Dublin, Ireland & is headlined by the very popular & polarizing Conor McGregor taking on Diego Brandao. The event will only be shown on the UFC Fight Pass & starts at 12:30pm EST. The UFC Fight Pass is definitely worth the $10 a month. I love the fight library to go along with the 12 exclusive events a year & now they will also be showing all Invicta events starting with Invicta 8 in September. This should definitely be an action packed event & I'm very much looking forward to it. I will release all of my official plays once the odds are out at my book because so far they've only released the main card.
Prelims
125lbs - Patrick Holohan (9-0-1) vs Josh Sampo (11-3-0)
I originally liked Sampo to use his wrestling to grind out a decision victory but he just didn't look right at the weigh-ins where he came in a half pound overweight. It's never a good sign when a fighter asks for the towel immediately when they step on stage because it shows that he's had a bad weight cut. I thought this fight was going to be close anyways but now I am going with Holohan to use his massive size to simply wear down Sampo. It's never good to miss weight but it's even worse in the smaller weight classes because of the pace that is usually kept. I know that Sampo made weight on the 2nd attempt but that extra time spent on weight cutting instead of re-energizing your body really takes a toll on the fighter as the fight wears on. I look for Sampo to come out fast but if he can't get the quick finish the Holohan will grind out the last 2 rounds & get his hand raised. My prediction is Patrick Holohan to defeat Josh Sampo by decision.
205lbs - Cody Donovan (8-4-0) vs Nikita Krylov (16-4-0)
This is a matchup between 2 lower tier fighters that are probably going nowhere in the UFC & the loser more than likely will get cut but Krylov has shown a little more potential. The crazy thing about Krylov is that he just turned pro July 27th 2012 & this will already be his 21st fight. Krylov has shown to have big power but I also think his grappling isn't as bad as most make it out to be. I look for Krylov to come out fast & crack the glass chin of Donovan inside the 1st round. I don't expect this fight to last long at all. My prediction is Nikita Krylov to defeat Cody Donovan by KO/TKO.
185lbs - Tor Troeng (16-5-1) vs Trevor Smith (11-5-0)
TUF 17 may end up being 1 of top 3 TUF seasons of all time when looking at all of the talent that it provided the UFC but Troeng is one of the few forgettable guys from that season. Troeng is pretty slow on the feet but he does have big power & is overall pretty well rounded. "Hot Sauce" Smith is scrappy but he's just not very good. Smith is 1-3 in his last 4 fights & 2-4 in his last 6 with 3 of those 4 losses coming by finish. Neither man has the best chin but Smith isn't a power puncher & his chin is definitely worse. You can also add the fact that Smith gasses pretty bad. Troeng is definitely no world beater but Smith just isn't a UFC caliber fighter. I don't expect either man to be around in 2 years but I do think Troeng knocks out at Smith as Hot Sauce starts to gas. My prediction is Tor Troeng to defeat Trevor Smith by KO/TKO.
185lbs - Cathal Pendred (13-2-0) vs Mike King (5-0-0)
Cathal had a lot of hype coming into the TUF 19 house but both he & King lost to eventual tournament winner Eddie Gordon. Cathal is a natural welterweight & King is a big middleweight but Cathal is the much better striker & has the better cardio. King will need to try & finish this quick because the longer it goes, the better it is for Cathal. This won't be a fun fight but I look for Cathal to do enough to win at least 2 of the 3 rounds. My prediction is Cathal Pendred to defeat Mike King by decision.
125lbs - Neil Serry (13-10-0) vs Phil Harris (22-12-0, 1NC)
Seery is coming off of an impressive performance in his loss to Brad Pickett & Harris is 1-2 with 1NC in his last 4 fights. Harris originally picked up an easy submission victory in his last fight but that was overturned due to a failed drug test. Harris is more than likely fighting for his job but his glass chin & the toughness along with the power of Seery is just too much to overlook. I think this will be a back & forth bout but sooner or later, Seery will end the contest with a vicious knockout. Seery is fighting on another level than he was early in his career. My prediction is Neil Seery to defeat Phil Harris by KO/TKO.
205lbs - Ilir Latifi (9-3-0, 1NC) vs Chris Dempsey (10-1-0)
Latifi looked tremendous in his last outting & I expect him to put on another good performance. Dempsey is a late replacement & moving up from middleweight to take this fight. The extra weight on Dempsey will probably lead to him gassing rather quickly & Latifi will take advantage by slapping on a submission. Latifi is very aggressive & strong. I really don't think Dempsey has too much of a chance. Latifi is the training partner of Gus & he is a guy I could see moving into the top 15 of the LHW division sooner rather than later. My prediction is Ilir Latifi to defeat Chris Dempsey by submission.
Main Card
155lbs - Norman Parke (20-2-1) vs Naouki Kotani (33-10-7)
This is Kotani's return to the octagon & these 2 fighters have combined record of (22-0-1) in their last 23 bouts. Kotani is a sub or nothing fighter with 25 of his victories coming by submission against lesser opposition. I think this should be a fairly easy fight for Parke after he survives the early flurry from Kotani. I look for Parke to really control this bout & be able to wear down Kotani enough to lock in a submission that'll force Kotani to tap or go to sleep. Kotani just isn't UFC caliber in my opinion & if the UFC does decide to keep him then he should only fight on the Asian cards against scrubs or fighters making their debuts. My prediction is Norman Parke to defeat Naoyuki Kotani by submission.
125lbs - #10 Brad Pickett (25-8-0) vs #3 Ian McCall (12-4-1)
Welcome to the Fight Of The Night!! If you thought Lineker vs Ozkilic was fun to watch then you'll really enjoy this bout. This is going to be very fasted paced with each man having their moments. Pickett has a lot to prove & there's really no telling how McCall will do after nearly a full year out. In the end, this comes down to McCall being a wack job that tends to slow down as the fight goes on & Pickett possesses the more diverse attack. I look for McCall to win the 1st round but as long as Pickett mixes in a few TD's then he will take over in the 2nd & win the 3rd as well. My prediction is Brad Pickett to defeat Ian McCall by decision.
170lbs - #13 Gunnar Nelson (12-0-1) vs Zak Cummings (17-3-0)
I am one of the very few people that was happy the UFC took Ryan Laflare out of this fight & replaced him with TUF 17 vet Zak Cummings. I still don't think the UFC ever told us why Laflare was taken out but I felt they didn't need to put 2 undefeated rising stars against each other this early in their careers. Laflare vs Nelson should be saved until they're both in the top 10 & edging closer to a title shot. As for this fight, Cummings is a very good grappler that is 2-0 in the UFC & was a dog in both fights. Cummings is yet again a big dog but I just don't see how he wins this fight. Nelson is a good striker & his karate stance along with explosion can give anyone in the division fits but he is also one of the best grapplers in the world. Cummings will push a fast pace but as he tires, Nelson will pick him apart. I see Nelson wearing out Cummings in the 1st & then finishing the fight in the 2nd. If Cummings can pull off this miracle then he will definitely put the entire division on notice & enter the top 15 but Nelson seems to be a future headliner. My prediction is Gunnar Nelson to defeat Zak Cummings by submission.
145lbs - #13 Conor McGregor (14-2-0) vs Diego Brandao (22-9-0)
McGregor has the weight of Ireland on his shoulders & it's all by his design. Mcgregor has a lot of Chael Sonnen like tactics for promoting fights. He is both easy to love & easy to hate. Only difference is, McGregor is a finisher & loves to get the knockout. This fight has fireworks written all over it! Brandao's only chance of winning is by coming out guns blazing & finishing McGregor in the opening minutes. McGregor should be able to withstand the early flurry & then put a beating on Brandao. I'm not sure this fight will make it out of the first round & I am 100% positive this won't even go a full 3 rounds let alone all 5. Brandao just won't have the cardio to survive the pace this fight should keep for longer than a round or maybe 2. I think McGregor puts on a great show for the home crowd & continues to move up the ladder. The UFC needs to be very careful with McGregor because the groundswell of support for the Irishman is so crazy that most fans want him either to be fighting for the title or in a #1 contenders bout by the end of the year. After this he should still be at least 3 good wins away from contending for the belt. Trust me when I say that McGregor isn't quite ready for the likes of Aldo, Mendes, or probably even Cub Swanson. I would love to see him fight the Korean Zombie sometime though. My prediction is Conor McGregor to defeat Diego Brandao by KO/TKO.