Hello Friends,
Spring has finally arrived – as Thursday we start the 78th edition of The Masters Tournament from Augusta National Golf Course (I seriously just got goose bumps writing that – and I know you got them reading it, don’t lie). Now there are, and have been, tremendous previews throughout the years for this event. I am not going to get into particulars like that however. I want to talk strategy primarily. You are here because you, hopefully, trust my analysis. And now I am about to take you on a complete 180 degree turn-about, away from what I preach the most week-in and week-out. You see – stats will be one of the least important factors this week. Huh?
This week is all about Augusta National. You need to have experienced it to play well (well enough to win) here. Players have to have seen this place under the bright lights – if you will. You need to know that putts break just a hair more on 11 and 12 due to their proximity to Rae’s Creek. You have to be able to decipher between Eagle Roars, Birdie Applause, and Par ‘Golf’ Claps to know where you stand – without ever needing to look at a Leaderboard. How much do I have to hook (for a Righty) it around the corner on 10 and 13? I have to at least birdie 15… Can I throw it high enough into the slope on 16 so that it trickles back tantalizingly close to a hole in one on 16s Sunday pin position? Where did that tree on the left side of 17 go (haha - just messing with ya)? And after hitting draw (tee ball on 10), after draw (approach into 11), after draw (tee ball on 13) – can I finally aim at those left bunkers and hit that power fade (again for a Righty) up the hill at 18 with all the pressure in the world on?
You see – it’s all about the course this week. Yes we will definitely look at stats. Strokes Gained Putting because these are some of the toughest greens in the world. Greens In Regulation because there is a strong correlation with hitting a ton of greens and playing well here. Driving Distance because you can bomb it and not get into too much trouble (just hit that old 40 yard hook for the win!). Scrambling because, again, these are some of the toughest greens in the world. And Par 5 Scoring Average because after all these years the only holes that have averaged under par are 2, 8, 13, and 15 (all Par 5s!). But the real driving force behind my analysis this week is Course Form. Not since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979 has a Rookie won here. Now I do really like some Rookies this week – but you won’t find any of them below on my Outright picks. We need to identify those seasoned Augusta-ites (that works, right?).
I’ve literally been texting about this event with a close friend of mine – for what seems like since Dufner’s last putt dropped at Oak Hill. And the fact that this is my first Major here at Pregame – I am even more excited to get to work! So here we go!
Outright Picks - .5u each
Sergio Garcia – 23/1
-Now I feel I have a really great price on Sergio this week – as a few months ago I took him To Win Any Major in 2014 at 26/1. I will list it here for scorekeeping purposes at 23/1 as it is widely available – but just understand that as El Nino is slipping into that Green Jacket on Sunday, I’ll be slipping a little extra green into my pocket at 26/1! Sergio has some great Course Form here. He has played in 15 consecutive Masters dating back to his Low Amateur days in 1999! He has 3 Top 8s here, and most recently has gone T12 in 2012 and T8 in 2013. What’s more impressive is that he has 5 Top 12s in his last 12 Majors overall. He clearly has played some great golf in the biggest events lately. Generally seen as one of the best to have never won a Major – Sergio is also on some fantastic Recent Form having gone 19,1,16,8,16, and most recently 3rd last week at the Shell Houston Open. And as if that wasn’t enough – he happens to be 4th on my stat board this week. 1st in Scrambling, 16th in Greens In Regulation, 31st in Driving Distance, 32nd in Strokes Gained Putting, and 89th in Par 5 Scoring Average. It all seems to be coming together for Sergio these days – as he appears to finally be happy and content in his life. I think that will lead him to accomplish what is the last piece on an otherwise great career. 8 PGA Tour Wins and another 11 on the European Tour – I truly believe the guy will get it done eventually. And I am more excited about him this week than any other golfer.
Matt Kuchar – 24/1
-Funny how everyone’s short term memory seems to be the primary factor driving decisions these days. Of course he didn’t get it done the last 2 Sundays. Of course everyone saw him hook it into the water from the fairway on 18 last week and lose a tournament that was his for the taking. But lets not forget this guy is a winner. He has won some of the biggest tournaments outside of a Major (FedEx Cup Playoff, Players, WGC, Memorial) among his 6 PGA Tour victories. So I for one am not afraid of him choking come Sunday. Of course we all remember the huge smile on this low amateur in 1998 when he finished T21 – but it’s his past 4 April’s at Augusta which make me think he has what it takes – having gone T24, T27, T3, and T8. Kooooch has firmly entrenched himself in the Major Championships conversation over the last few years. Over his last 16 Majors – he has MC twice – but finished in the Top 28 each of the other 14 times! That includes 5 Top 10s – and last years T8, T28, T15, and T22 performances across all 4 big ones. And with one of the best Recent Forms out there of 16, 13, 38, 4, and P2 last week – Kooooch is looking great coming in. 15th in Scrambling, 45th in GIR, 47th in Strokes Gained Putting, and 64th in Par 5 Scoring Average doesn’t hurt either… You can bet that this tournament means something really special to the Georgia Tech Alumnus. I absolutely expect Matty Boy to be in the mix when the real tournament starts on the Back 9 come Sunday afternoon.
Brandt Snedeker – 40/1
-I’m sorry – but Brandt should always been in the conversation at Augusta. He has been very outspoken in his drive to win a Green Jacket – and it has shown in his performances over the last 3 years. To go along with a T3 from 2008, Sneds has gone T15, T19, and T6 since 2011. He also had a stellar 2013 in the Majors going T6, T17, T11, and T66 across all 4 – so he has that Major Championship Pedigree we are looking for. Just about the only thing that could be said about Brandt is whether he is healthy or not – and I happen to think his 8th at the Arnold Palmer a few weeks back means he is. After 2 MCs during a 3 start stretch back a couple months ago – he has started playing better making 4 straight - which culminated in that really good performance at Bay Hill. He is saying all the right things coming into this week – and absolutely knows what it takes to compete here. I look for Brandt to play very well this week despite him not having the greatest stats heading in. But I believe it’s all about his health – and if he is 100% ready to go (which he absolutely seems to be) – watch out.
Jason Dufner – 44/1
-I absolutely tried everything I could to keep Duff Daddy off my card this week --- I mean how rare is it to win back to back Majors??? Practically impossible. But here he is, and if you take a peak at how he has performed at Majors over the last 2 years or so – its no wonder why. At Augusta he has participated 3 times with progressively better finishes – T30, T24, and T20. But overall he has made 9 consecutive cuts at Majors while not finishing outside the Top 31! That includes 4 Top 4s – truly remarkable! So as I continued my search for reasons to avoid him this week – I came across his Recent Form… 16, 9, 14… Dammit. Course Form, Major Form, and Recent Form --- all really, reaaaaallly good. He doesn’t have the greatest stats outside of being 4th in Par 5 Scoring Average – but I just can’t overlook the form. I expect Jason to make his 10th consecutive Major cut in route to a very, very good finish this week. And who knows – he might be grabbing his Wife’s ass on the 18th green at Augusta – how the patrons will truly enjoy that!
Hunter Mahan – 45/1
-Another of those golfers near the top of the list when you think of Non-Major winners. Hunter has really turned it on recently in the Majors however – which includes mixed results at Augusta. In the last 6 years he has 3 Top 12s and 3 MCs. But we have that on our side this year! – As he MC last year just like he did in 2008 and 2011. He followed those up with a T10 in 2009 and T12 in 2012 – so that means he is almost guaranteed a Top 10 this week, no!? His Recent Form reads 4, 6, 52, 16, 9, 77, 31 – so he has played exceptionally well at times early this year. And he absolutely has the stats to contend this week. 16th in Strokes Gained Putting, 16th in Par 5 Scoring Average, 51st in Driving Distance, and 56th in GIR. Hunter is going to break through in a big way – and I expect that this 5 time PGA Tour winner will do so sooner rather than later. Hope he has a nice Green and Yellow Flat Brimmed PING hat in his Sunday wardrobe.
Luke Donald – 66/1
-With 7 European Tour Wins to go along with 5 PGA Tour Wins – Luke has got some game. And even throughout his much publicized struggles (due primarily to a swing change) he has competed well in the Majors. He has 3 Top 10s at Augusta, and in his last 12 Majors overall has 4 Top 8s. A Recent Form of 8, 25, 4, and 24th last week has me excited to see what this Englishman can do in quest of his first Major. Since Tiger won the 2008 US Open we have had 15 First Time Major Winners. And Luke is the 5th of my 6 Outright Picks who have never won one. So as you can see – I am thinking we are going to see a first timer slip on that Green Jacket come Sunday. I wouldn't be shocked if it was this short game wizard.
So those are my Outright picks for this week. Of course I reserve the right to add a few more as I see fit – but for now these are the ones I like. But since it’s a Major – I will give you a quick run down of those that just missed out being selected. These guys will probably make my card in some capacity – but ultimately did not make the final cut for Outright Plays.
**Westwood (45/1) – insane Course Form and finished 17th last week. **Fowler (66/1) –solid Course Form, finished 6th last week, and according to Mickelson shot 30 on the front Tuesday – and went on to eagle 13 while birdieing 15, 17, and 18 – what did he shoot – like 63 (In case you didn’t know – I shot 63 once in the final round of the 1973 US Open at Oakmont and – SHUT UP JOHNNY! We all have heard it 1,000 times already!)?! **Poulter (70/1) –really good Course Form, and more of a gut feeling than anything. Think Poults goes very nicely this week. **Matsuyama (85/1) – another gut feeling. Has played Augusta twice and is really high on my stats board. And lastly **Stricker (95/1) – gotta feel that his chances are running out. Really good Course Form, and has the fantastic wedge and putting game needed to win here.
I will be back tomorrow with the rest of the Card. Lots of action this week as there are plenty of Tournament Matchups, First Rd Matches, and even the specialty markets go to Top 20 this week! Lots to get through for sure – but I am also trying to resist the urge to go overboard. Keeping the plays to a minimum and only playing premiums has been working – so I am trying to stick to that as much as possible. But…. It is The Masters and we are going to have a little fun!
Best of luck to everyone this week! Thanks for being along for the ride. Please feel free to ask any questions you may have. I will be monitoring the thread all day tomorrow. And, as is usual each year, I’ll be taking Thursday and Friday off. Going to be a blast!
-LinksPicks