It's Colonial Week as the PGA Tour continues to reside in Texas. First post since the Players where we went 2-3 and now 37-24 on the year in picks. Have cooled down substantially but looking to get back on track this week. The par 70 7,200 yard layout favors accuracy over power. There are only 2 par 5's on the course, so making those birdies when you have opps will be imperative to success. The difficult 3 hole stretch early in your round known as the "Horrible Horseshoe" will provide a test that tends to set the tone for a players day. The greens are extremely small so accuracy on the approach shots will be key. In order to have those chances, you have to avoid the trees that pretty much line the fairways on most holes. Spieth won this event last year, and actually didn't hit a ton of greens, but his scrambling was unreal. He got up and down from everywhere and the putter was burning up the bag.
Here are my picks this week:
Cauley over Palmer +110 - Somewhat of a contrarian play as seemingly everyone jumps on the Ryan Palmer train this week every year. Palmer is a member at Colonial, but I dont put as much into that and here is why. The course demands accuracy and there are no "member shortcuts". If you miss the greens, you need to be able to scramble and make putts from 10-15 ft. Palmer struggles with both, he ranks 180th and 203rd in scrambling and strokes gained putting. Good value on Cauley, who while traditionally not a great scrambler, has been on point the last few weeks and dialed in. Current form has been terrific as well with top 10s in his last 3 starts.
Leishman over Horschel -140 - Ol Billy Ho putted the lights out last week, but I'm getting he regresses back to the norm this week especially after an emotional win. Leishman has a big ad in scrambling and is on average a much better putter. I also like big Marc in the wind which is expected to play a major role this week.
Stanley over Simpson -120 Kyle Stanley is close to getting a win...real close. Believe it our not, he is ranked the #1 ball striker on tour. He prefers these bentgrass greens so I expect the putter to heat up. He's also an above average scrambler and a great scorer on par 4's which dominate this course. I expect him to take down this matchup and compete come Sunday.
Hadwin over Grillo - +105 - favorite pick of the week. Hadwin checks all boxes, top 30 on tour in ball striking, putting, scrambling, and par 4 scoring. Grillo is typically solid off the tee but struggles around the greens. With the small greens in play this week, I can already feel his frustration building. Expect Hadwin to come into this week refreshed and ready to play well.
Outright Winner Picks
Casey 22-1
Hadwin 40-1
McGirt 50-1
Stanley 50-1
Longshot Bombs - Hahn 75-1, Taylor 75-1, Poston 150-1
Best of luck,
JINKS