Things have shifted over the last few days. The horses I have eliminated from Win contention are:
Gormley - Finishes slow every time.
Irish War Cry - Needs the lead and isn't fast enough early to get it.
Irap - Faster early than IWC but still not fast enough to get the lead.
Thunder Snow - Dirt wins in Dubai are overrated since all the foes he beat are Turf and polytrack runners. Faces real dirt runners for the first time.
Practical Joke - Prefers the mile or less. Always makes early moves and slows down late.
State of Honor - Pace Setter. Always fades very late. Never won a route.
Fast and Accurate - Another potential pace setter. Wants no part of a dirt surface though. Probably will never be a factor.
Untapped - Good final fractions but still has never won a route.
Looking at Lee - Always finishes fast, but always spots the leaders an insurmountable lead. Good chance to finish in the exotics though.
Tapwrit - Abysmal last race. Can't trust my money on him.
Patch - Only 3 races makes it difficult to handicap him for this race.
Now for the Win contenders.
Early Speed Contenders:
Classic Empire - Versatile can win on and off the pace.
Always Dreaming - Always finishes fast. Only horse in field capable of going very fast early and still finish fast.
Battle of Midway - Went too fast early last time. Switch back to Prat is a plus.
Off pace Contenders:
Girvin - He may be dealing with an injury. But this horse is fast. We haven't seen his best yet.
Gunnevera - Finishes strong every time. Deserved a much better speed figure in the Florida Derby.
J Boys Echo - Not the strongest closer, but the possibility of an off-track I think will give him an advantage.
Hence - Last race was beautiful. Fast early. Fast late.
McCraken - A little concerned about his last race, but working well since which makes me think he's ready to bounce back.
Sonneteer - Gut feeling here.