Okay
CFL fans it's Divisional Championship Sunday. The four teams left are
Toronto @ Montreal & Saskatchewan @ Calgary. Three of the four
are regulars and Toronto hasn't been to this round in about five
years I'd guess to say. Should be two interesting games and I've
gotten down on one game in particular. The first game The Eastern
Divisional starts 1:00 EST and game two starts at 4:30 EST. The late
afternoon game is a game I couldn't get a strong handle on. Unlike
the other game with Toronto and Hamilton which was the game we passed
last week. I really wouldn't be surprised to see it go either way.
Especially after they way Saskatchewan came back and battled to win
over British Columbia. We'll just let the chips fall as they may, and
I'll secretly be rooting for the Roughriders.
2*
Montreal -10 (Sunday 1:00 EST)
These
two squared off to end the regular season in a meaningless game where
both teams rested many starters. The Argo's from Toronto did win two
of three games this year in this series. However this is playoff time
and Montreal knows how to win and win in style at home.
This may very
well be the last go round with this coaching staff as Montreal HC
Marc Trestman has deep NCAA & NFL ties and a 4th straight trip to
the Grey Bowl should have teams in the lower 48 calling. The players
know this and will play very hard for their coach.
Trestman
teams have done well at home when coming off a SU loss going 10-1 ATS
winning by an average of 23.5 PPG. Toronto's HC Baker who has done a
fabulous job this year, and if you remember me saying back in July
that this Toronto just needed to clean up their simple mistakes and
they could compete with anyone and here they are one win away from
the Grey Cup appearance.
They've done it with Cory Boyd at running
back and special teams star Chad Owens who just so happens to be a
former Montreal player who refused a pay cut which got him traded to
Toronto. Cleo Lemon is the QB for Toronto and he has managed well,
but expect Montreal to be ready to make Lemon beat him, and I don't
think he can.
For Montreal to win they have to contain Owens on punts and kick-offs and
commit to stopping running back Boyd. The two weeks off (remember the starters
rested in Week 18) should have the Al's ready to roll here. Montreal
comes in losers of two straight ATS while Toronto has won two
straight ATS. In the first two rounds of the playoffs teams that come
in winners of two or more ATS are 4-7 the following playoff game ATS.
Teams that have two or more losses ATS are 4-3 the following playoff
game. When these two type teams meet each other the teams with two or
more spread losses are 3-1 ATS. Just a little angle for this game is
all, and if you fade the winners and play the losers you'd be 11-7, 61% ATS.
Montreal QB Anthony Cavillo is the best QB in the CFL, and if
his offensive line gives him time he should be able to carve up
Toronto who is allowing a 66.2% pass completion rate. The crowd is
expected to be about 60,000 strong and that is well above average for
a CFL game. Home field and rested players will be the difference here
as I feel Montreal gets the double digit win.
GL
Doc