After struggling mightily with my Outright Plays, I am going to start dialing these back at bit beginning this week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The goal is to profit long term, and having done some analysis on my past results I've come to the conclusion that I really need to focus more on my strengths. Dating back to June 2013 I am up +98.545 units on all match ups (18h & 72h), yet down -44.13 units on Outrights alone. It's crystal clear where my strengths have been. So starting this week I will be allocating no more than 1 unit each week on Outright Plays. Over that same time span my Top 5/10 plays have been profitable (nearly +9u), so I will continue my current strategy of around 4 or so each week at .5u.
I happen to have 4 golfers that I like for Bay Hill, so each will be played at .25u. This week is another where the Tournament is very 'Top Heavy' with names like Rory, Stenson, Bubba, Day, and Scott - so all the more reason to limit Outright exposure. I've got a long day of grinding over Tournament Matches ahead of me, so I wanted to get these posted early so I could fully concentrate on those.
**Keegan Bradley 33/1 - .25u**
-Even though Keegan has had a rough start to the year so far, his recent form of T38, mc, T4, T41, and T17 isn't horrible. The main reason for his selection is that having finished T3 and 2nd the last two years at Bay Hill, I happen to think 33/1 is a fantastic price.
**Hideki Matsuyama 35/1 - .25u**
-This is Hideki's first time teeing it up at Arnie's event, but that doesn't scare me away at all. I happen to think his top notch ball striking translates almost anywhere. And with a Recent Form of T23, T4, mc, T2, T78, & T3 on this side of the new year, he has been knocking on the door for quite some time. He has finished Top 5 in half of his events during the 14/15 Tour season, and I expect that great play to continue this week.
**Ian Poulter 50/1 - .25u**
-I am sure your starting to notice a bit of a trend as I am really concentrating on players with strong Recent Form this week. Poults def fits that bill having gone T24, T49, T3, mc, T19 over the past month or so. He also happens to play Bay Hill very well, finishing no worse than T21 over the past 4 years (T20, T21, 3, T12).
**Brendan Steele 115/1 - .25u**
-A bit of a long shot, but those who have followed me know I am a big fan of Steele and have backed him quite regularly recently. He didn't play at the WGC or Valspar, but prior to that was on some great form finishing T11, T14, T45, and T26. He's had a bit of a mixed bag of results at Bay Hill, going T20, mc, mc, T38 in his 4 appearances - but he is really coming into his own as a player. His lone win was the Valero back in 2011, but he has made 13 straight cuts dating back to The Open Championship in July of last year. I can't wait to see who he is matched up against this week, as he could very easily make the Tournament Matches card as well.
Time to get grinding on those Tournament Matches. Back soon.
-LinksPicks