Thursday, Nov. 28
(Favorites on Thanksgiving: 23-2 SU [20-5 ATS] last 9 seasons)
Packers @ Lions (-6.5) – 12:30 p.m.
Historic Line
Biggest underdog for Green Bay in last 3 seasons.
Green Bay has not been a bigger underdog against Lions since 1992.
Thanksgiving struggles for Detroit – plus struggles vs. Green Bay
Last 9 Thanksgiving games, Lions have won ZERO and covered ZERO.
Lions have won only 1 of last 15 games vs. Packers (2-12-1 ATS)
Green Bay strong in division
33-13 ATS in Division (12 of last 15 ATS)
In division off loss: 13-2-1 ATS
Green Bay defensive struggles
Packers defense has yielded 19 TD passes with only 4 interceptions
Packers have allowed 26 point or more each game since Rodgers was hurt
Misc
Home team in Packers games have covered 14 of 19 ATS
Packers 20-10 ATS as underdogs
Teams off tie: 2-6 ATS
Raiders @ Cowboys (-8) – 4:30 p.m.
[Dallas not a good favorite]
Cowboys as a home favorite: covered only 6 of last 23
Overall, Dallas tends to play up or down to competition:
Underdog in Cowboy games has covered 71% last 4 seasons (42-17 ATS)
Cowboys, after winning a game: 6-16 ATS the next game
[Dallas scoreboard better than stats (this year)]
Dallas has been outgained by over 1100 yards on the season
Only Jacksonville has a worse "net yards per play" than Dallas
[Oakland in extremely difficult scheduling spot]
Third road game in four weeks (traveling a total of 5 time zones).
Third game overall in last 11 days
Both teams in terrible spot - PASS
[Misc]
Tony Romo has won 23 of 28 games (SU) in November
Steelers @ Ravens (-3) -- 8 p.m.
Historic struggles for Pittsburgh
First time Steelers an underdog in three straight games since 2000
Close Games and low scoring
8 out of last 10 Pittsburgh/Baltimore games have a winning margin of exactly 3-points.
Pitt/Baltimore: last 11 meetings, combined points never more than 43 (via Phil Steele)
Good home team vs. weak Road Team
Baltimore has covered 7 straight at home
Steelers on road: 7-17 ATS streak
Hard to lay points in this series, but don’t love an older, below average road team on short rest
Misc
Ravens tied for worst offense (yards per play) in NFL
Sunday, Dec. 1
Titans @ Colts (-4.5) -- 1 p.m.
Colts struggling and likely overrated:
Only 7 teams have a worse "net yards per play" than Colts
Remember, Indy was first 11-win team EVER last year to be outscored by opponents
Starting games especially sluggish:
Colts in 1st half (last 4 games): outscored 93 to 12
Colts do bounce back!
Colts off a loss: 11-0 ATS next game
Appealing Tennessee trends:
Titans on the road: 5-0 ATS this season
Fitzpatrick: no interceptions last 3 games
No reason to lay points with struggling, overrated team – Tenn or pass
Broncos @ Chiefs (+5.5) -- 1 p.m.
Historic KC disrespect
First 9-2 team to be greater than a FG home underdog (in at least 25 years)
Denver simply overrated
Only 4 teams with a worse "net yards per play" than KC
Denver has a great offense
(Broncos have outpointed per game the second highest scoring team in the league by a greater margin than the #2 team has outpointed the #31 scoring team)
BUT, a below average defense (17th yards per play)
Payton in weather
Peyton Manning, road games December or later: 10-19 ATS
Only 2nd time with Broncos Payton Manning playing 1:00 ET game. (time change to 4:25)
KC defense injuries a concern. Still, getting points at home is best spot for Chiefs - it’s underdog or pass
Misc
Alex Smith last 36 games as a starter: 29-7-1 SU
Jaguars @ Browns (-7) -- 1 p.m.
Cleveland in unusual role as favorite
Biggest favorite for Browns in last 3 seasons.
Only 5th time since 1995 Browns favored by a TD or more
Browns clearly don’t want to play Weeden (injuries forcing)
Browns have not won a game Brandon Weeden started this season.
Steelers hangover
Teams favored week after playing Mike Tomlin’s Steelers: 13-34 against the spread.
Jags BAD
Jags: 4-12 ATS run
Each of Jags 9 losses by double digits
Sharps will rarely lay a TD or more in NFL – dog or pass
Misc
The SU winner of the last 23 Cleveland games has covered 21 times (spread has mattered only twice)
Browns: best defense in NFL (yards per play)
Buccaneers @ Panthers (-8) -- 1 p.m.
Both teams red hot
Panthers have covered 6 of 7
Bucs have covered 4 straight (beating the spread by a combined 40 points)
But situations favor the underdog:
Possible letdown for Carolina: Many big games in last month plus play at New Orleans next week
Tampa relatively better on road: 22-12 ATS last four+ seasons
Strong opinion on energized underdog getting more than a TD. Best Bet of week.
Misc
Cam Newton in one-score games: 5-14 SU in career (won last 3)
Panthers first team to play TB QB Glennon for second time.
Bears @ Vikings (-1) – 1 p.m.
Vikings run (AP) – Bears can’t stop run
Bears defense has yielded 197 yards rushing per game (last 5 games)
But spread accounts for this match-up edge
2-8-1 team laying points to division leader
When key factor is accounted for in line - PASS
Misc
NFL Road underdog off away loss: 64% since 2003
NFL teams off tie: 2-6 ATS the next game
Chicago (yards per play): 8th best offense; tied for 28th on defense
Cardinals @ Eagles (-3) – 1 p.m.
Both teams surging:
Cards (7-3 SU last 10 games): losing only: at SF, at Saints, vs. Seattle
Arizona has improved in the Vegas Power Rankings the most of any team since start of the season
Quarterback Foles is red-hot: 16 TDs and zero INTs
And, Philly also doing it with defense: holding 7 straight opponents to 21 points or less
Neither team likes home/road spot
Eagles: covered only 4 of last 24 home games
Cards covered only 42% on road since 2002 (39-54-2)
The bye may play a big role here – Eagles an excited team with a new offense and defense – extra time likely beneficial. The spread has finally caught up to Arizona – lean toward Philly
Misc
Visitor in Eagles games: 14-3 ATS run
No team gaining more yards per play on offense than Eagles.
Dolphins @ Jets (-2) – 1 p.m.
Jets regressing statistically
Top 10 in league in many important categories early in the season.
Lately, much less impressive
Jets play in trenches can no longer make up for Geno Smith
Geno Smith: 8 touchdown passes; 24 turnovers on season
(the winner of the turnover battle covers 77% of NFL games)
Game location strongly favors Miami
Road team in Miami games 54-36 ATS
Jets as home favorite: 51-85 ATS
I don’t want any part of Jets, but the lingering locker-room issues and thin o-line keep me off Miami.
Falcons @ Bills (-3) -- 4:05 p.m.
It’s all about Canada
Game Location: in Toronto (dome)
Home team in Bills games: 12-1 ATS
(so Buffalo doesn’t travel well – and they are traveling this week)
Atlanta bounces back well:
The next game after a loss: Atlanta 23-8 ATS last 31
But, Saints hangover
The week AFTER playing the Saints, teams are 47-82 ATS (36% since 2005)
Game site matters a great deal here. Confused. Pass
Misc
Bills: Favored first time this season
Bills: 5-1 ATS at home (in Buffalo) this season
Bills last 36 games: lost against the spread by a NET 135 points combined
Rams @ 49ers (-8.5) – 4:05 p.m.
Wiseguys like San Fran even more than public
Only Seattle and Denver considered better
Possible lookahead
SF hosts Seattle next week
And, great spot for Rams
Jeff Fisher as a underdog: 89-58 ATS (61%) in his coaching career
Jeff Fisher with Rams: perfect 8-0 ATS vs. teams with win percentage .600 or better
Typically would jump on big dog in good situation when playing a team looking ahead – but still, SF is slightly underrated – so it’s only a lean toward the dog
Misc
49ers at home under Harbaugh are 18-6-1 ATS
Patriots @ Texans (+7.5) – 4:25 p.m.
Texans a bust
Biggest downgrade by Vegas of any NFL team since start of season
Covered only one game this season
Biggest home underdog for Houston since 2006
And Kubiack has never done well when overmatched
In career as a dog of 4+ points: 40% (14-21 ATS)
Pats crush reeling teams
If opponent has lost 2 or more straight games, Patriots 33-12 ATS (in Tom Brady era)
Brady and receivers coming together
Past 3 games, Brady completed 70% of passes (86 of 123)
4 games before that: completed only 52% of passes
Never lay over a TD on the road. When situation favors favorite, pass.
Misc
On a per play basis, Pats tied for the 18th best offense and 10th best defense
Bengals @ Chargers (-1) – 4:25 p.m.
Cincy underrated
Only 3 teams with a better net yards per play than Bengals (Seattle, New Orleans, Denver)
If Cincy had won two recent OT games, they would be 9-1 SU last 10
Only one team in NFL with better defense per play than Bengals. San Diego has the worst.
Strong road trend
Road team in Bengals games has covered only 1 of last 13
Cincy underrated, but road stat too strong to buck - PASS
SNF: Giants @ Redskins (+1) -- 8:30 p.m.
Both teams disappointed
Giants loss at home against Dallas a “dream-crusher”
Trouble in Washington locker room
Location favors Giants
Giants on road under Caughlin: 52-32 ATS (62%)
Washington not a good home team
Specifically this week: 6-15 SU at home vs. opponents with fewer wins
If you can divine the team which is more “together” – that’s the pick. I have no idea. Pass
MNF: Saints @ Seahawks (-5) -- 8:40 p.m.
All about home field
Seattle (starting in 2005): 68% ATS at home (50-23-1)
On road during same period: 40% (30-45-1)
If simply play on at home, against on road: 95-53-2 (64% winners)
Saints have covered only ONE outdoor game all season
Both teams hot
Saints have covered 15 of 19 regular season games under Payton
Seattle: 18-7 ATS overall last 25
Both teams play well in big games:
Seattle 13-2 ATS vs. teams with a winning record.
Saints have won 9 straight MNF games.
Both teams with big games next week:
Seattle plays San Fran next week
New Orleans hosts Carolina next week
Seattle considered to be a slightly better team with maybe the strongest home field in NFL. Would lay -3.5 or take +6. In-between means PASS.