in cases like this past results have just about zero to do with what is happening now.
To get spreads like this you need a lot of public perception, which is why you dont see spreads over 20 very often because you need a really really really good team (according to most people or ESPN) facing a really really really bad team (again according to most people and ESPN).
But the spread is stupid, that more than anything is what the results show. Books could put up a lot more spreads of 21+ if they wanted to if they were in the 'prediction' business, but they arent. They look for a number that they think will take as much action as possible on each side. Obviously that isnt possible but in most cases it works out.
The fact Jax has a different QB and has a better offense than they did a couple weeks ago when they played Sea and were 'only' +19 makes this spread even dumber. Denver cant stop anyone, Jax can actually move the ball now, they cant stop anyone either. (thats why the tota has gone form 50.5 which is high anyway to 54, 55 at the Mirage)So if they dont turn the ball over 4 or 5 times, which they shouldnt without Gabbert in there they shouldnt really be more than a 14 pt dog in this game.
Obviously things happen but a lot has to happen IMO for them to lose by more than 4 TDs, which is what most people should have gotten Jax at. Line is now 26.5, I thought it would actually go lower before this and then get pushed back Sunday. By the way people are already talking in this thread I suspect it will.