I LOVED the Jets under 5.5, and New England over 11 when the lines opened up.. unfortunately, I wasn't in vegas until two weeks later, and some smart people also realized how off those lines were as well.
I will be adding to these throughout the offseason, likely. One thing I LOVE is when 5Dimes comes out with alternative win totals, I would reccomend people checking that out. Here is my future plays over the last three years. Hopefully some of you can cash with me on these Like previous seasons.
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4* New York Jets UNDER 5 WINS -140
- The Jets arguably have the leagues worst roster, but yet their win total is sitting at 5. Couldn't get to Vegas to gobble up a 5.5, but still love the play at 5. A case can be made based off of the teams offseason moves that the jets are tanking this season, similar to what Cleveland did last season. The Jets let a lot of their veterans walk in free agency, and didn't make an attempt to sign many, similar to what the Browns did last season. We all know how bad the Jets quarterback situation is, and when your situation is that bad, you need a roster that can carry the bad quarterback play. Josh McCown is a player coach at this point of his career, who seemingly gets hurt every single game he plays. It's very likely Bryce Petty and Christian Hackenberg will be making Starts this season, which is a recipe for disaster with a Jets team lacking playmakers and offensive lineman. The Jets RB situation is decent, but the playmaking core is below average as a whole. Eric decker is a question mark to be on the roster once the season starts, and the Jets other wideouts are unproven young guys such as Quincy Enunwa, Robbie Anderson, and Ardarius Stewart. Tight end is likely to be an invisible position for the Jets again, with bust Austin Seferian Jenkins and rookie Jordan Leggett leading that group. The Jets Oline as a whole is one of the leagues worst, and is an injury to injury prone LT Kelvin Beachum from possibly being the leagues worst. The run defense is superb, as usual. But the Jets lack the personnel to fit Todd Bowles style. The Jets can push the pocket but are one of the worst teams in the league at creating pressure on the edges. They also lack a cover linebacker. Safety should be a good position for them after the pick of Jalan Adams, but the Jets have some of the leagues worst cover corners, which isn't a good fit for man coverage heavy Todd Bowles. Making matters worse is that Morris Claiborne, the teams top cover corner, is one of the leagues most injury prone players. Bowles is a potential lame duck coach and the Jets had a ton of internal locker room problems last season. Making matters worse for the Jets is that they play the two deepest and arguably best divisions in the NFL, the AFC West and the NFC South. The schedule early is relatively easy, going at Buffalo, at Oakland, at Cleveland, and home against the Dolphins and Jags. But those teams are also looking at the Jets as their easy games. There last 11 games are home games against the Patriots, Falcons, Bills, Panthers, Chiefs, Chargers.. and road games against the Dolphins, Bucs, Broncos, Saints, and Patriots. If forced to make a prediction, I believe they'll go 2-9 in that stretch. The tank for a franchise quarterback may be on in New York, and I'd be stunned if this team won six games this season, and was not picking top three in next years draft.
2* Patriots OVER 12 Wins -145
I would have put three units on this at 11, which is what it opened at. 12 is a key number and worth a unit at that number. The Patriots have not finished worse then 12-4 for 7 consecutive seasons. This roster, on paper, is the best Patriots team in a decade IMO. The Patriots won last years super bowl, and now add the leagues best tight end, Rob Gronkowski, and a explosive deep threat, in Brandin Cooks. The threat of Cooks is going to open up so many more short and intermediate options for Brady, who is already dominate in that asset of his game. The offense doesn't need much analysis.. its the most versatile and best offense in the NFL. The defense is pretty solid as well. The Patriots are obviously one of the most well coached defenses in the NFL, and they have one of the leagues top secondaries. The pass rush is probably the weakest link of this team, but it is not a giant concern, especially with last years emergence of Trey Flowers. The Patriots division is filled with a projected 7.5, 6, and 5 win team.. which should lead to 5-1 at the worst in the division. Not much analysis needs to be added to this play.. New England has the best roster they've had in a decade, and I don't expect them to fall below 12 wins for the first time in seven years with this roster.
1* Los Angelas Rams UNDER 6 Wins -125
I would play this at 6, and pass on it at 5.5. This is a fade of Jared Goff, who I believe gets easily flustered in the pocket, and is surrounded by poor talent that can not make up for his individual deficiencies. The Rams have one of the most talented running backs in the league next to Goff, but the pass catchers leave a ton to be desired. Robert Woods is at best a second wideout, and Cooper Kupp/Josh Reynolds can not be relied on to be reliable targets in year 1. Tavon Austin is nothing more then a gadget player. The Rams are planning to run a two tight end heavy offense, with talented but unproven first and second year players, Gerald Everett and Tyler Higbee. The Rams made a big signing in LT Andrew Whitworth, but the rest of the line still has multiple holes, and Whitworth is 35 years old. Overall, this is going to be one of the leagues worst offenses. It's worth mentioning that Goff was so horrific last season that the Rams went 0-7 SU, and ATS in his starts, with the offense barely being capable of moving the ball. The Rams defense is above average, and I liked the Wade Phillips hire. The Rams have talent on defense, but have some notable flaws, mainly in their secondary at corner opposite Trumaine Johnson, and linebacker next to Ogletree. The Rams get matchups against the much improved AFC South, and the NFC East, which is a strong division from top to bottom. At 6, this line is slightly too high, and I'd be surprised if they got to 7-9.
1* Detroit Lions UNDER 8 Wins -125
It's astounding that the Lions made the playoffs last season. The Lions scored 1.9 touchdowns per game offensively, which was 24th in the NFL. The Lions defensive DVOA ranking was 32nd in the NFL, or in other words, dead last. The Lions defense allowed opposing quarterbacks to have a 72.7 completion percentage, which was for the worst mark in NFL history. Matthew Stanford is a good, pro bowl level type of quarterback, but I don't like the rest of the roster surrounding him. You could make a case that the Lions don't have one strength they can hang their hat on, aside from staffords late game heroics last season. Their passing offense is full of possession wideouts, and very little explosiveness. Last years rushing offense was ranked 30th in the NFL. They did add TJ Lang and Ricky Wagner to the Lions, and get Ameer Abdullah back from injury, but they also lost Riley Reiff and Larry Warford. The Lions defense ranked 29th in sacks, and 20th in run defense. The Lions lack many consistently disruptive front 4 players aside from Ziggy Ansah. Linebacker is a huge question mark, and the team is relying heavily on a rookie first round pick at that position. Darius Slay is a very solid corner, but the Lions are desperate for solid corner play next to him. The Lions played 7 games, including the playoffs, in where the opponent had 9 wins or more. The Lions went 0-7 in those games, with 6 of them being by a touchdown or more. Matthew Stafford is 4-33 SU in his career against teams with a winning record. The Lions won 9 games, and in 8 of them, they had to come back in the fourth quarter to win, many of them on a late score. The Lions trailed or were tied with two minutes left in the fourth quarter in an amazing 15 of 17 games last season! I have a hard time seeing this organization that has a poor track record of sustained success having another winning season, especially with all the wholes they have on their roster.
1* Kansas City Chiefs UNDER 9.5 Wins -135
Most books show 9 on the Chiefs with juice towards the over, but 5Dimes alternative in totals, which I highly recommend checking out, lets you get it at 9.5 with reasonable juice. The Chiefs were one of last seasons biggest overachievers. They got away with having below average personnel in the passing game and running game, which showed in their offensive statistics. Their run defense was a liability at the end of last season as well. The team has not made many improvements via free agency or the draft, since they invested so much into a rookie quarterback. They lost Jeremy Maclin, who still has juice left in his tank IMO, forcing far from proven Tyreek Hill into a number 1 wideout role, with below average players behind him. This team won games because they did not turn the ball over, and they forced turnovers, including leading the NFL in fumble recoveries. The Chiefs have the leagues second toughest schedule in the NFL based off of this years NFL season win total projections. In their first 10 games, they play the Patriots, Eagles, Chargers, Redskins, Texans, Steelers, Raiders, Broncos, Cowboys, and Giants, which is the toughest beginning to a schedule in the NFL. If they do not get off to a great start, this leaves open the chance of Patrick Mahomes making starts for the Chief, since Alex Smith is unlikely to be back with the team in 2018 due to the Chief salary cap problems. You could argue that the Chiefs have bottom ten offensive talent, with Travis Kelce being the only pro bowl talent player on the offense (not counting Tyreek hill's special teams ability). This is a team that got outplayed statistically in a ton of games last year by some below average teams. Against above average teams where they don't dominate the turnover battle, I see the Chiefs having trouble this season, and like the contrarian view that the Chiefs will have a down year