I thought I would give my thoughts on the team I follow the most, maybe it will help some of you decide on season W/L totals or just in your overall handicapping.
OAKLAND RAIDERS
2016 Stats:
OFFENSE: 6th Overall
Pass
|
Run
|
Scoring
|
YPP
|
13
|
6
|
7
|
10
|
Defense: 28th Overall
Pass
|
Run
|
Scoring
|
YPP
|
24
|
23
|
20
|
32
|
Stats wise the Raiders are tied with GB and NYG for the 16th best team in the league, when you combine offense and defense. It's pretty easy to see, the Raiders boasted a very good (yet non elite) offense, and a bottom 10 defense, despite the presence of reigning defensive MVP Khalil Mack.
2016 Year in Review and 2017 Outlook:
In 2016 the Raiders had the good fortune of winning all 7 close, coin toss type games. Despite questionable game plans and playcalling, Carr bailed the team out over and over throwing dime after dime, in what I would consider low percentage throws in critical moments. The Raiders went 1-3 against playoff bound teams, and were really never in the game against ATL and KCx2. The lone victory came against Houston, in what was one of the most egregiously refereed game I have seen in a while.
Essentially the Raiders signature win last year was against a very limited Denver team on SNF.
Fast forward to 2017 and Oakland has gotten not just better, but significantly better on offense. The firing of old school minded OC Musgrave can only be viewed as a plus, and the additions of Marshawn Lynch, Jared Cook and Patterson can only be viewed as significant upgrades, not necessarily because they are so great, but because of how mediocre the guys playing their respective positions were in 2016.
I feel like Todd Dowling's presence (new OC) should allow the Raiders to get the most out of Cooper and Patterson. It would not be surprising if the Raiders would score 3-5 points more per game with the new additions and better playcalling. I still think NE, Pitt, ATL are better offensively but Oakland can definitely make the jump to elite status this year. They really don't have a position of weakness on offense.
Defensively, the Raiders brought in oft injured and not overly efective OLB Jelani Jenkins to take over for Malcolm Smith. In the draft, they did nothing to address their DT and ILB position, but they did acquire a quality DB that can play outside or inside in Conley, as well as a potential TE stopper in Obi Melifonwu. Overall I can see the Raiders hovering somewhere around the 20th=25th defense in the league, provided everyone stays healthy. If Mack or Irvin sustain an injury, I simply do not see where the pass rush is coming from. This would be major trouble for a team that already was dead in sacks despite having Mack get 11 sacks alone. The rest of the team managed less then 15 sacks combined!
Overall it seems like the Raiders have improved on what was already their strong unit, while largely ignoring a very weak defense.
Coaching staff wise, Del Rio is a delegator that doesnt dazzle game planning wise. Norton is probably a bottom 5 DC, while Dowling has a chance to be the next Kyle Shannahan or Josh McDaniels.
Record wise, I dont see the Raiders replicating their 12 win season. You simply cant live on the edge like that for very long and continue to win games. The AFCW is a VERY competitive division, with the Chargers being much improved on both sides of the ball.
Prediction: 10-6, Division Winner or Wild Card Berth.