Sorry for the delay on this post, but I have had one of the busiest weeks of the year this week. Anyway, after looking hard into the card, I have not found much that appeals to me. I know that is tough for some people that follow my picks and want big action on Sunday, but I am not going to force a big play that I do not absolutely love. I will give my thoughts on both games, however.
1* New England Patriots ML -225 *WINNER*
Those who have followed my plays throughout the last three years may be aware that the most juice I ever laid in a NFL game was -150, earlier in this season. I am playing the money line, small, because after reviewing the week, the number one thing I had the most confidence in was the Patriots winning the AFC Championship. I considered playing -5.5 for a unit, but ended up making the personal decision to play the ML. It is well documented that Big Ben’s production plummets on the road. It does not help that the Patriots have the league’s best scoring defense (They have faced weak competition, but it is still noteworthy), and have allowed the seventh fewest passing touchdowns in the league. The Patriots have also not let up a rushing touchdown since week 8. LeVeon Bell is going to get his yards, but the Patriots fifth ranked run defense should be able to contain him. The Patriots are also one of the leagues most disciplined defenses, which is critical against a patient runner like LeVeon bell who often finds defenses getting out of their gap against him. Big Ben is not in an ideal place to overcome his road woes, especially since Belichick is the master of taking away teams top options. The Steelers are very thin on quality skill position players outside of Bell and AB. Logan Ryan should be able to easily handle the Steelers wide outs opposite Antonio Brown, and Jesse James is not an ideal seam player to exploit the Patriots tight man coverage. Tom Brady is an illustrious 106-18 at home in his career, including 14-3 at home in the playoffs. The Steelers run defense has been exceptional recently, but the pass defense has some potential leaks. William Gay is not qualified to cover Julian Edelman in the slot, and Artie Burns is vulnerable at corner as well. These are two players that Brady can exploit with his quick footed wide outs. The Steelers also allow the 4th most receiving yards to opposing running backs, which gives Dion Lewis a positive matchup against the Steelers. I think the Steelers can keep it competitive, and maybe even get a back door cover. But this money line is cheap for the Patriots in a home playoff game. And I like it up to -260 for a unit.
In the earlier game, my head and work says Atlanta is the right side. Perhaps I will consider them at -3, if it ever hits that. The Falcons have the better offense, an offense that may be the best we have seen since the 2007 Patriots. Kyle Shanahan has done an excellent job scheming and attacking opponents weaknesses all season. I suspect he will match up his team’s running backs with the Packers linebackers often. The Packers do not have one pass coverage advantage against this Falcons offense, which makes it a dream matchup for Matt Ryan. The Falcons offense averages 35 a game at home, and Aaron Rodgers is 1-17 SU in his career on the road when his defense allows 26+ points, with his only win coming last week. Yes, most quarterbacks are going to have a losing record in that situation, but surprisingly, Tom Brady is 5-4 in that same situation over the past five seasons. The Falcons defense is not very good, and Rodgers should be able to torch them. It is a little concerning that three of his top four pass catchers are injured, however. But overall, the Falcons have a better defense than Green Bay, and they have home field. But my instinct thinks that Green Bay can not only cover, but potentially win this game. I will see where this line moves, and make a decision, but as of now, it is a no play with the only chance of me betting it being if the line drops significantly from the current number of 5.5.