shivaseven said:
Aside from turnovers the statistic that has the strongest correlation to winning is not 3rd down efficiency, it's EDSR (early down success rate) that is how often a team succeeds in moving the chains on first and second down. It makes sense as offenses become more predictable on third down and defenses bring in their sub-packages.
turnovers, true. problem is we can't predict turnovers week to week, I am working on something involving turnovers to see how it works out. not saying 3rd down is strongest, but was major part of algorithm a computer guy came up with to predict NFL games. I have no idea how to build an algorithm so was looking at that particular item.
is there a site with edsr ratings?