3* San Diego Chargers +7 -130 *WINNER*
We have a live dog in a game that I think will come down to the very end. The Falcons have beaten 2 of their last 18 opponents by more then 7 points. The Chargers have been beaten by more then 7 points one time in their last 12 games. The Chargers are also on a 20-9 run as a ATS road underdog. We are getting one of the most competitive teams in the NFL with a touchdown, against a Falcons team that I still do not believe is a top tier team. The Chargers have lost 4 games this season by a combined 14 points, and if games ended at the two minute warning, they would be 6-0. The Falcons are gonna score points. But the Chargers defense, especially their front, has actually played better then the perception people have. Bosa has wrecked havoc up front, and Liuget and Mebane have been very solid run stoppers for them. Casey Heyward has played solid at corner, and the Falcons don't have a ton of other elite passing game weapons to attack the other Chargers corners, who flat out are not very good. The Falcons will score points, but so will San Diego. Rivers has been one of the hottest quarterbacks in the league and he lives off of seam passes, shallow crosses, etc. That's the exact weakness of this Falcons defense, who has some of the worst linebacker and safety play in the NFL. Their pass rush is poor as well, and the Chargers finally have a fully healthy offensive line that should be able to handle this pass rush. The Chargers are #8 in EDSR for passing offense, and the Falcons are 30th in pass defense in that category, which is huge for a guy like Rivers who can pick defenses apart with short passes. IMO the Chargers have a slightly worse offense, slightly better defense. If the Chargers could just finish close games, the line would be in the 4-4.5 range, so their late game collapses while they were winning games outright actually benefit us with this line at the number it is. I'm viewing this as a field goal type game so I will gladly take the touchdown and run.
2* Minnesota Vikings -2.5 -115 *LOSER*
19-4 on Vikings plays, like them in this spot. First off, the Vikings are one of the best coached teams in the NFL, and they are coming off a bye week, which is always a good thing for an elite coached team. Vikings tight ends coach Pat Shurmer was the Eagles offensive coordinator from 2013-2015, and also the interim head coach when Chip Kelly was fired, so he is very familiar with the personnel on this team. Sam Bradford is making his return to Philly, and he is also obviously very familiar with this team. Any information on the offense that Bradford and Shurmer can give to the defense, is critical, especially when they have two weeks to prepare for the Eagles tendencies, have arguably the leagues top defensive coach, and arguably the leagues top defense. The suspension of RT Lane Johnson killed the Eagles last week. Wentz was under pressure, hit, or sacked on a remarkable 22 of 27 dropbacks, and that was against a Redskins front 7 that has struggled all season. The Eagles are a west coast offense, which typically relies on timing. The Vikings predominately play press man coverage, which disrupts the timing of the offense and makes you hold onto the ball a little bit longer, which is going to be a problem against this ferocious pass rush that must smell blood after the performance the Eagles offensive line had last week. The Vikings have shut down wideouts like OBJ, Jordy Nelson, Hopkins, and Benjamin this year.. and the Eagles don't have pass catchers in the same stratosphere as those teams I just mentioned. The Vikings offense has looked better then the stats have indicated. Game flow and the team milking leads have led to some poor yardage stats, but Bradford has looked pretty damn impressive, and the Eagles will be without Bennie Logan, who is a key run stopper for the Eagles. The Vikings have covered 9 straight games on the road, won 8 straight regular season games and have not allowed a team to score over 17 points in 9 straight games. The Eagles are slowly becoming what we thought they were, which is an average NFL team. Their is no way IMO the Vikings fall into this "trap game" with Bradford making his return to Philly, coming off a bye, with a coach who constantly harps on them to be great and not fall into these trap games, which is part of the reason they have been such a great team on the road.
2* Redskins/Lions OVER 49.5 -110 *LOSER*
Lots of things line up perfectly in this total. The Redskins are 9th in early down success rate in rushing offense, and 6th in early down success rate for passing offense. The Lions rank a pathetic 32nd in run defense early down success rate, and 31st in early down success rate for passing defense. The Redskins run defense on early downs is ranked 31st, and the Lions is surprisingly 18th, which should keep them in manageable second and third down situations, while the Redskins should be in manageable situations all day. These teams are a combined 9-3 to the over on the season, and both defenses are depleted with injuries, especially the Washington secondary and the Lions front 7. The Redskins are a base two tight end offense, and the Lions are possibly the worst team in the NFL at defending tight ends. Vernon Davis is a suitable tight end replacement for Jordan Reed, and Jamison Crowder will now get more snaps against a vulnerable secondary against slot wideouts. Both teams are flooded with weapons, going against bad defenses who can't stop teams, especially on early downs, and both have defenses with multiple injury problems.
1* Ravens/Jets UNDER 41 -110 *WINNER*
I like this one whether Flacco plays or not. In every phase of both teams defenses, their is a mismatch against the opposing offense. The Baltimore offense is 17th in EDSR for run offense, and 31st in EDSR for pass offense. The Jets are fourth in EDSR for run defense. They are 32nd in pass defense, but the Ravens, especially with a potentially injured Flacco, banged up offensive line, or Ryan Mallet starting are not the team to take advantage of this. The Jets are 30th in EDSR for run offense, and 28th in EDSR for passing offense. Baltimore is 2nd in EDSR run defense, and 19th in EDSR passing defense. Geno Smith starts for the Jets, which is always a good thing for the under unless he throws pick 6's. Look for the Jets to attempt to establish the run behind a quarterback I honestly don't believe the coaching staff believes in. The Ravens have said they will try to be balanced under their new offensive coordinator, and if Flacco plays injured or Mallet starts, they surely do not want their quarterback dropping back 40+ times against this defensive line with an injured offensive line. Almost made this a 2* play at 42 but missed the line, so I will fire for a 1*
1* Chicago Bears +7.5 -110 *LOSER*
This Packers team has beaten a team by over 7 points one time in their last 8 games. Far from the home juggernaut that we have been accustomed to seeing. Green Bay is 28th in passing EDSR and 29th in running EDSR. And this was with a healthy eddy Lacy, who at least keeps defenses honest. Lacy will especially be missed in keeping defenses honest in the red zone. The Packers are likely to struggle running the ball in this game with no Lacy, which makes life more difficult for Rodgers, who will be seeing plenty of two deep coverage from a Bears defense that has poor personnel but has overachieved this season (13th in pass defense DVOA). Rodgers is a great player, but something is off with him right now. In their last 15 games, Brian Hoyer shockingly has a better QBR, completion percentage, and more 300 yard games then Rodgers. When a team like the Packers is struggling and missing their top three corners, the backdoor is always open, if it should come down to that. The Bears offense is actually sixth in yards per play, and Hoyer has yet to throw an interception in four stars this season. Jeffery and Meredith have big matchup advantages against the current Packers fourth and fifth string corners. Bears cover the number here.
1* Miami Dolphins +3 -120 *WINNER*
Trap game? Buffalo coming off four straight wins, now laying a field goal to a divisional opponent on the road. Miami finally had their offensive line fully intact last week, and they ran the ball for 200+ yards down Pittsburghs' throat. I think it's likely that Robert Woods and LeSean McCoy do not play this game, making the Bills laughably thin at the skill positions. They also are likely to be without LT Cordy Glenn, a difference making tackle. Without them, they have the worst playmaking core in the entire NFL, and wont be able to take advantage of the Dolphins poor back seven. Adam Gase might have lit a fire under this team temporarily by calling out players for effort and cutting former starters, and it showed against Pittsburgh. The Bills are laying too many points with not enough playmakers to justify doing so, and the situation is pro Miami IMO.
1* Saints/Chiefs UNDER 51 -110 *WINNER*
Saints averaging 4.4 YPP on the road.. Expect Chiefs run heavy gameplan.. 24-17 type game IMO
1* Giants/Rams UNDER 45.5 -125 *WINNER*
Personal decision to buy, OK to play at 45 or even 44.5
1* Bills/Dolphins UNDER 45.5 -110 *LOSER*
Bills lack of weapons and Tannehill's inconsistent history against Rex have me questioning this line.. Don't understand how it got so high TBH
1* Denver Broncos -7 -130 *WINNER*
Was mad at myself all week for missing out on 6.5. Line climbed up, now I can get -7 -130 at reasonable juice. Remember, Wade Phillips and Kubiak were both fired by Houston, and the Denver players LOVE their coaches. if you win the game, you cover ATS most of the time and I can't see how Denver loses three in a row, especially against this Houston team. Houston plays well against bottom tier teams typically, but against top competition in big moments, they dont show up (At NE AND MINN This season). Osweiller is AWFUL against pressure and tight coverage, big problem is his lack of touch on any of his passes, which you need against a tight man coverage secondary. Situation, and talent favor Denver tonight, getting the game at 7 was the key for me.