I never post, but after performing well for myself over the last 3 weeks (15-6-1 last week) and having a winning year last year, it's time to start with actual plays making their way to the forums. After initially looking at the NFL lines this morning, this is what I see. I'll narrow down actual plays by Thursday.
Fade, follow or ignore. Either way, best of luck to everyone this week (& tonight.)
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MN -4
Giants are one of the most overrated teams in the league and entirely one dimensional. Eli won't have time to find his guys down the field with the kind of pressure he'll have against this Minnesota D. Zimmer will give him many different looks at the line of scrimmage and while mixing in the crowd noise, Eli will have a really tough time getting it done.
Cincy -7
Miami is terrible. It's as simple as that. Cincy at home, they'll get it done. I see score of something to the likes of 31-10
Jags +3
The Jags are 0-3. 2 of the 3 games they were in. They're fighting for their first win. They're lost a tough one to a quietly good Ravens team last week with a top 5 defense and a QB who can get it done. But this week they play the Colts. This team is just terrible. Their defense is one of the worst, if not the worst in the league. Their O line is a mess. They're missing their number 2 wideout and now their going on the road to play a young Jacksonville team that has played decently well this season, with an exception to week one when they went cross country to play the Chargers. Look for the Jags to get their first win of the season.
Browns +9
Giving a terrible Skins team 9 points is something that I could never get behind. Regardless of who they're playing. That, and I think this number is a bit of an over reaction to the game yesterday.
Carolina -3.5
Division Rival. The Falcons are terrible and look for Cam and company to have a big bounce back win this week on the road.
Detroit -3
Another division rival. The bears are playing like a team that just doesn't expect to win. I don't usually like road favorites, but getting behind the bears knowing they can't stop teams from scoring would be ridiculous. I also like the OVER at 46.
Tennessee +6.5
I'll take the points. The Texans are a team that hasn't done anything (IMO) through the first 3 weeks. Texans win, but I like the Titans to cover in a 20-16 type game.
Baltimore -3.5
Oakland travels cross country for the second week in a row for a 1pm eastern time game (Pacific). They're going up against a top 5 defense, Oaklands defense have given up more passing yards than any other team throughout the last 3 weeks. Look for Joey Flacco and company to carve up this weak secondary. Aside from all of this, I think everyone is just too high on the Raiders. I think it's quite possible that they lose their next 3 games.
Denver -3
(another road favorite). I like the Bucks, but they really screwed a lot of us yesterday. I expect Denver's pass rush to give the Bucks O line some problems on Sunday and the Denver's D backs to luck up Mike Evans and company. I also like the OVER at 44.5
SF +3
Toss up. Look for Dak to finally get picked by a decent SF secondary. SF hasn't hasn't performed very well against the run, but give me the +3 home dog in a close one.
Saints +4
Shoot out city. I haven't seen a total yet, but I may not need to. I know Brees on the road is not Brees in the Dome, but I still expect a lot of points.
AZ -8.5
The Cards played terribly yesterday. They're obviously better than what their record shows (1-2). I expect them to come out and play well against the Rams, as they remind the league of who they actually are and what they're capable of.
Chiefs +6
I think the Steelers win this game, but it's a much closer/low scoring game than what will be expected. The Steelers look lost on defense last week. Give me the dog in a close one.
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I'll be throwing up my college plays later this week, as well.
Please excuse any spelling or grammar errors.