3* Minnesota Vikings -4 -110 *WINNER*
18-4 on Vikings plays, and here is another one. The oddsmakers haven't respected this team enough under Mike Zimmer, and that is why this team has been unbelievable ATS under Zimmer. The early line for this game was -3, in which obviously would have had a huge bet on, but at -4, it is still very, very playable. The oddsmakers have not adjusted the game enough, as I'd still line the game at -6. This Vikings team feasts on teams that are not physical and one dimensional passing teams. The Vikings pass defense under Zimmer has been excellent, and they have contained number one wideouts very solidly. Jordy Nelson and Kelvin Benjamin (0 catches!) did very little against the Vikings defense, and even going back to last year, someone like Julio Jones played very badly against the Vikings for his standards. Minnesota feasts off one dimensional teams that are reliant on their number 1 wideout to carry the offense. The Giants run game should be non existent in this game, and they just lost their pass catching back Shane Vereen. The Vikings home field advantage is among the best in the entire NFL, and that advantage is even greater when the opposing team can not run the ball and the crowd gets to help the defensive lineman get a jump on the snap on third and long. Jerrick McKinnon and Kyle Rudolph are big time mismatches for the slow footed Giants linebackers in coverage. The Vikings Oline is not that good, but the Giants are a weak pass rushing team, who has only 5 sacks on the season. For comparison, the Vikings are averaging 5 sacks a game, tops in the NFL. Minnesota also possesses a huge coaching advantage in this game, something to not be taken lightly. The Vikings defense has not allowed more then 17 points in 7 straight games, which came against Rodgers twice, Eli, Cutler, Cam, Wilson, And Mariota. Giants head coach Ben McAdoo has admitted that the team has not been "disciplined or poised", which reflects how many turnovers and penalties this team has had, and the word "disciplined" defines this Vikings team under Mike Zimmer. The Giants were in toss up games all three game this season against below average opponents, and now get a real step up in class, which is a super bowl contending team in one of the loudest stadiums in the NFL on a prime time game. This line is too
2* Pittsburgh Steelers -6 -110 *WINNER
I respect what the Chiefs have done in the regular season since week 6 of last season. They have been awesome, but I don't think this is the same dominant defense that won all those games last year. They played one good quarterback this season, and they let up a ton of points against him (Rivers). The Chiefs pass rush has not been the same without Houston (3 Sacks on the season), and their corners are weak. Marcus Peter's is a good player but not a shutdown corner, and the rest of the corners are below average, especially when dealing with a pass rush that isn't playing like they did last season. For the Steelers to cover, they obviously need to win the game. The Steelers are projected to score 27 points or so based off the line and total of this game. At home, they have been a dominant offense the last two seasons. Big Ben has a 42-13 TD to INT ratio at home, and the Steelers in those games the last two years with Ben starting have scored 21 or more points 11 out of 13 games. Alex Smith's SU record when the opposing team scores over 21 points is 9-42. The situation is pro Steelers, who are coming off an embarrassing loss, playing a Chiefs team who embarrassed the Jets. The Chiefs are very reliant on their running game to be successful on offense since Alex Smith is a glorified game manager, and the Steelers are the fourth ranking rushing defense in the NFL. The Steelers weakness is their secondary, but Alex Smith likely can not consistently exploit it, especially when playing from behind. Antonio Brown is expected to be covered by Phillip Gaines, which is a HUGE mismatch, especially with the Chiefs pass rushers struggling.
2* Cincinnati Bengals -6.5 -120 *WINNER*
The Bengals have been a dominant team against the spread at home, being 18-8 ATS in their last 26 games. The situation obviously screams Cincinnati, who gets the Dolphins at home on a short week in a must win game. This Dolphins team barely beat the Cleveland Browns at home, and would have lost if it wasn't for three missed field goals By Cody Parkey. I have said that the oddsmakers have overrated this team since the start of the season, and that was a big reason why I bet the Dolphins under 7 wins. I think the Bengals have a 3.5 point HFA, so This line is indicating the Bengals are only 3 points better on a neutral field then Miami, which my power rankings highly disagree with. The Bengals defense has suffocated opposing wideouts this season (Marshall, Decker, ABrown), but got lit up by Denver's widdouts. The reason was because they played 8-9 people in the box, and dared the Broncos to beat them throwing, which they did. The Dolphins running game is non existent, and the Bengals defense should feast on the one dimensional Dolphins, who's offense is heavily reliant on Jarvis Landry and Devante Parker. The Dolphins have one of the worst back sevens in the NFL, something Dalton, who's been a very good home quarterback, should take advantage of. This line is flat out too short.
1* Carolina Panthers -3 -125 *LOSER*
I have always said that the Panthers struggle against physical defenses that can match the smash mouth attitude of the Panthers offense. That is why the Broncos and Vikings gave this team trouble. The Atlanta Falcons defense is the opposite of those teams, and quite frankly if the type of defense that Cam Newton and the Panthers feast on. The Falcons pass rush has been non existent under HC Dan Quinn, they are one of the softer defenses in the NFL. The Falcons offense has looked good this season but they have went against three "soft" defenses in Tampa, Oakland, and New Orleans. This team flat out struggles against physical teams, and the Panthers define one. The Panthers are the clear better team, and will also have the clear motivational edge. This team is 1-2 facing a 2-1 Falcons team who beat them and ended their undefeated regular season last year. I refuse to believe that this Falcons team is a division champion type team, and can supplant the far superior Panthers. The look ahead line for this game was Panthers -4, and I don't see anything that has changed to warrant the line move. In fact, I think the line should be higher based off of the fact that this is a must win game for a far superior ball club.
1* Houston Texans -4.5 -110 *WINNER*
My power rankings highly disagree with this line, as the Texans are about 3.5 points better on a neutral field then the Titans, even without Watt. Tennesse is a poorly coached team IMO and not a fan of Mularkey, and the Titans have failed to cover the spread 30 times out of their last 39 games. Spot for Houston is excellent coming off an embarrassing loss ten days ago. OBrian is taking over play calling, and for whatever reason, teams tend to respond well when a new play caller comes in, especially when it's an extremely bright offensive mind like OBrian is. Mularkey is a poor coach IMO and I hated the hire for the Titans to begin with. Their defense has played solid this season but Perrish Cox has arguably been the worst corner in the league throughout three weeks, and he will be covering will fuller. Hopkins has destroyed the Titans for big stat lines in recent games, which gives us two solid matchups outside. The Titans receivers don't pose much of a matchup threat to the stingy Houston pass defense. The Texans are particularly very good against tight ends, which is not a good thing for the Titans most reliable pass catcher, Delanie walker, who is also coming back from an injury. I can't see the Titans offense getting much going, and the line value in this game plus the good matchups for the Houston passing game, as well as the spot for Houston have me on them for this game.
1* Indianapolis Colts PK -120 *LOSER*
1* Chiefs/Steelers OVER 46 -110 *WINNER*
1* Bills/Patriots UNDER 43.5 -110 *WINNER*