1) TEN -1.5 vs OAK
Analysis: Both teams come in at 1-1. One can argue that TEN could easily be 0-2, and same can be said for Oakland as well. Both teams can run the ball, TEN ranking 14, OAK 2nd.
Key Handicapping factor: OAK has had problems covering TEs and running backs, in addition to mobile QBs ever since I can remember. On top of that TEN is bound to get the running game going, after being somewhat contained by an elite MIN defense, but they went for 139 against Detroit. I have a feeling they will easily eclipse 150 vs Oakland, and may even approach 200. The pressure Mariota will put on this defense that is already in a major state of chaos will be too much to handle. Add to that an elite TE in Walker, and I can see TEN easily putting up 24-28 pts.
Oakland's D is an absolute disaster: getting no push in the running game, Mack is MIA, and the LBs and DBs look like they re on roller skates.
TEN's Defense gave up a respectable 16 points vs Detroit, an offense that is similar to Oakland's, a good but not elite offense.
Oakland has a very balanced offense, but is plagued by slow starts and questionable playcalling by Bill Musgrave. TEN doesn't have an elite defense by any stretch, but they are about average.
Last year Oakland was VERY lucky to escape TEN with a hard fought 24-21 victory. Since then TEN has upgraded its offense significantly, while Oakland is essentially the same, and their Defense has regressed tremendously.
What could go wrong: Jack Del Rio has probably read Kenny Norton the riot act. If Norton doesn't fix the defense pronto, he'll be looking for work by week 5. I don't doubt that the Raiders will come in motivated.
Final thought: TEN has the much better defense, better coaching staff and gave MIN all they could handle until they made some critical mistakes offensively. Oakland is a "mental" team with no leadership and very likely soft and overhyped. TEN wins 27-24.
Here's the rest of my week 3 card, with write ups to follow. I do expect all these numbers to be worse by the weekend, so if you have any intention on following my plays, you re likely to get the better number earlier.
ARI -4 @ BUF |
JAX +1 vs BAL |
PIT -3.5 @ PHI |
SD +3 (-115) @ IND |
NO -3 vs ATL |