3* Minnesota Vikings +7.5 -125 *WINNER*
17-4 all time on Vikings plays, and going to fire on another big one. The look ahead line for this game was Vikings +5.5. Let me tell you, Adrian Peterson is a hell of a player, but his loss is being overvalued as far as this line is concerned. The threat of him opens up the passing game, but he is averaging 1.8 YPC this season, which has resulted in the Vikings being awful on first down this season. Like I've said before and the a broncos have shown, you must control the LOS against Cam Newton, and the Vikings are one of the few teams in the NFL that can do that against Carolina. The Vikings have freak athletes on defense of their own that can help contain the Panthers freak athlete quarterback Newton. The Panthers defense has been shaky to start the season, and they've had to play pretty conservative due to the lack of experience and talent at cornerback. This game is going to very likely be a defensive slug fest, with points at a premium, which plays into Minnesota's hands getting this many points. The Panthers are a very physical offense that typically bullies soft defenses but that is not the case for this game. The Vikings have won 8 straight games ATS on the road as well. The line is projecting the Panthers to score around 24.5 points in this game. The Vikings have allowed under 17 points to opposing offenses in their last 6 games, with those offenses being quarterbacked by Aaron Rodgers twice, Eli Manning, Russell Wilson, Marcus Mariota, and Jay Cutler. The Panthers will also be without Jonathan Stewart, another player that helps Cam Newton stay in a favorable down and distance. The Vikings played Cam Newton's panthers two years ago, when they had their main core of playmakers, and they held the Panthers to under 200 passing yards and 13 points. Obviously the Panthers have evolved into a better team since that point, but so has the Minnesota defense. The Vikings corners are known for playing physical, and that should help against a Panthers big and physical receiving core. The Vikings have lost a game by over 8 points only three times in Mike Zimmer's last 24 games as head coach. Too many Points!
2* Arizona Cardinals -4 -110 *LOSER*
The Arizona Cardinals might be the most talented roster in the NFL in my Opinion. This is a veteran, well coached team that does not have many let down games during the season. Last year, they were 7-1 SU on the road, and in their 7 wins, they won by more then 4 points every single time. They blew out multiple inferior opponents such as the Lions, Rams, Eagles, Bears, And Browns, winning every one of those games by two touchdowns or more. The Bills season is on the line which is why the line is lower then expected, but this bills team lacks the personnel to keep up with the Cardinals. The Cardinals glaring weakness is their boundary corner next to Patrick Peterson, but the Bills do not have the wideouts to expose this weakness. The Bills only viable pass catching threat is Sammy Watkins, who is playing injured and will be covered by one of the best corners in the NFL, Patrick Peterson. The Bills have not gotten a very good pass rush so far this season, and got picked apart by the multiple wideout spread formations that Chan Gailey used. The Cardinals have arguably the best play making core in the NFL, and a quarterback who is lethal when given a clean pocket. And don't forget about a great head coach who knows how to attack defenses as flawed as buffalo is. History suggests that this cardinals team doesn't let up in trap games on the road, which gives me confidence to back up the clearly far superior team that has big time personnel advantages and mismatches that pose a big threat to Buffalo.
1* Lions/Packers OVER 48 -110 *WINNER*
Match up and Personnel wise, this game points to a high scoring affair. The Lions will likely be without top pass rusher and top linebacker Ziggy Ansah and DeAndre Levy, leaving the Lions front 7 decimated. If you can't control the LOS and put pressure on Aaron Rodgers, he is flat out deadly. The Packers last season ran no huddle 57% of the time at home, while only 17% of the time on the road. The Lions will also be without Ameer Abdullah in this game, which means the Lions are more likely to play with Theo Riddick in the backfield. Riddick is a huge mismatch in the passing game against Packera MLB Jake Ryan. Eric Ebron also has a plus matchup against the Packers linebackers. The Packers will likely be without top corner Sam Shields, who is recovering from the fifth concussion of his career. The Lions are stacked with weapons on offense, and the Packers can not afford to be thin against this Lions passing game. The Lions have been a high scoring machine for the most part since Jim Bob Cooter took over as offensive coordinator, and they have started to run more no huddle this season as well. If Shields is not playing, you could argue that every Lions pass catcher (Tate, Jones, Boldin, Ebron, Riddick) has a plus matchup. The Packers offense has also looked significantly better at home then on the road during Rodgers tenure. Even if Shields does play, play is still a go! Line is moving down, so sucks I got a bad number, but my work has this game going over and I still believe it's a winner.
1* New England Patriots PK -105 *WINNER*
Don't have much time for analysis right now but wanted to get the play out.. I had a strong lean towards New England and said to myself if Gronk is active, that's enough for me to fire on it.. The Texans are minus Brian Cushing and expect Belichick to run two tight ends all game running the ball with Blount against a run defense that has struggled this season and hitting Gronk and Marty B down the seam. Texans just won the biggest game of their season vs the Chiefs, "revenge game". Love Belichick at home in a pick em Game.
1* Jacksonville Jaguars +1.5 -115 *LOSER*
This Ravens team defines an average team in my opinion. I still don't see this offense firing on all cylinders yet. I suspected Baltimore's offense might be rusty to start the season with Flacco coming off a knee injury, and throwing to new wide receivers., with his only familiar one coming off a torn achilles. Flacco threw two interceptions last week at Cleveland, but could have been picked off 5 times if not for multiple dropped interceptions. I don't see an offense that is fully in sync at the moment. Baltimore beat Buffalo at home despite a poor offensive effort, and barely beat Cleveland on the road last week, and probably would have lost if McCown did not get injured during the game when the Browns opened up nearly a three touchdown lead. It's tough to win two straight road games for elite teams, let alone average ones. The Jags are coming off a game where they were embarrassed on the road, and will have full motivation coming off of that loss as an 0-2 team playing a 2-0 team. Motivation is HUGE in the NFL, if people have not noticed. The Jags impressed me in their home opener against the Packers, coming about 15 yards away from beating them. The Jags pass catchers pose matchup problems for the Ravens defensive backs, and Allen Robinson torched this team last season in a Jags outright win in Baltimore. Also, remember that the Florida heat is an advantage for home teams early in the season. I am expecting Jacksonville to win this game.
1* New York Jets +3 -125 *LOSER*
Yes, the jets have had road struggles under Bowles and Fitzpatrick. That is the only thing keeping this as a one unit play, because the jets match up very well with the Chiefs team. The Chiefs pass protection is suspect, and Alex smith has a tendency to drop his eyes in the pocket. Not good against the jets ferocious interior pass rush. The jets have gotten destroyed by the deep ball the past two weeks, but Alex Smith is not a great deep ball thrower. The Jets Run D is arguably the best in the NFL, and Alex smith is not the type of quarterback that can consistently beat teams without having a great running game. The Chiefs pass rush has not been the same without Justin Houston, and their corners opposite Marcus Peters, who is a play making corner but not a shutdown corner, have struggled. The Jets will have very good match ups for two of their three top wideouts every time they snap the ball on offense. The Jets have 10 days rest for this game, and their will be no let downs for them, as they have the toughest schedule in the NFL to start the season. KC has not been overly impressive this season and their defense has the reputation of being top notch, but they are not playing like it at the moment. The Jets strengths on offense match up well against this Chiefs defense, and the Chiefs offense likely can not take full advantage of the jets defensive weakness.
1* Indianapolis colts PK -110 *WINNER*
This game is a must win game for the Colts, who are 0-2 facing the 1-1 Chargers. The Chargers were an awful team on the road last season, going 1-7 SU, with their only win coming against Jacksonville, who they blew out their last game as well. I don't love this Colts roster at all, they have a very good quarterback, great weapons, a improved but still very average offensive line, and a poor defense. But the Chargers are not the team to take advantage of the deficiencies of this colts roster. This Colts team is a mentally strong team, and I don't think they were given enough credit for somehow salvaging an 8-8 season last year despite not having Andrew Luck for more then half of the season. Entering week 2, In Phillip Rivers last 39 games without Keenan Allen compared to his last 39 games with Keenan Allen, his YPA drops by .7, completion percentage drops by 7%, and his touchdowns regress by 9 and interceptions increase by 11. Further hurting Rivers in this projected shootout is that the Chargers just lost Danny Woodhead to a torn ACL, who was projected to have a big time plus match up against the slow footed colts linebackers. Melvin Gordon is not nearly as capable of a pass catcher as Woodhead is. The Chargers are one of the worst teams in the NFL at stopping the run, which won't let them put Luck in unfavorable downs and distances, which makes his offense deadly. In the Chargers first road game, they let Alex Smith throw for 369 yards. The Colts are 20-7 ATS coming off a loss, which further backs up my theory that this colts team is a mentally tough team. The Colts and Chargers are similar teams, Good quarterbacks, poor defenses, but the Colts are home (Where they have been extremely solid at during the Luck era), and are desperate. I'm all over the Colts in a must win game. I have the teams rated close to equal, no way this should be PK