HERE WE GO! My power ratings use a zero value for an average team. Carolina is rated +6, they are the top current NFL team, rated 6 points better than an average NFL team. To get a power rated spread on a game, take the power rating differential of the two teams, then apply a standard HFA of 2.5* to the game.
*Some teams have a HFA different than 2.5, so the below column for the team specific HFAs. If the column is blank, the standard 2.5 is used. I used to use 3.0 for a default power rating, but during the last two years the average NFL HFA has only been 2.5, and I am using this in 2016.
By example, KC at +2.5, Sd -1.5, so KC should be -4 on a neutral, -6.5 @ KC week1.
|
17-Aug |
HFA |
|
|
|
Arizona |
5.5 |
3.5 |
Atlanta |
-1.5 |
|
Baltimore |
0.5 |
|
Buffalo |
-0.5 |
|
Carolina |
6 |
|
Chicago |
-1 |
2 |
Cincy |
2.5 |
3 |
Cleveland |
-7 |
|
Dallas |
1.5 |
1.5 |
Denver |
1 |
|
Detroit |
-1 |
|
Green Bay |
5.5 |
4 |
Houston |
0 |
|
Indy |
0 |
|
Jax |
-1 |
1.5 |
KC |
2.5 |
|
LA |
-2.5 |
|
Mia |
-1.5 |
1.5 |
Minny |
2.5 |
|
NEW Eng |
1 |
4 |
New Orl |
-2 |
|
NYG |
0 |
2 |
NYJ |
0 |
2 |
Oakland |
1 |
|
Philly |
-4 |
2 |
Pit |
5 |
|
SD |
-1.5 |
|
SF |
-6 |
2 |
Sea |
5.5 |
4 |
Tampa |
-1 |
2 |
Ten |
-4.5 |
2 |
Wash |
-0.5 |
|
What do you guys think? Who is too high? Who is too low?
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