From my initial review, it looks like there amazingly is a 90% chance he WILL be suspended.
I think the key here is Brady is 39. Although a 37-38 year old Brady WAS worth 8 points to the line, his backup is now more seasoned, and he is heading to the QB cliff age of 40 (Favre was 40 in his last year, but he arguably was the only age 40 success story).
Make Brady worth 5 points. The adjustments looks right to me.