Wanted to thank the PreGame community for welcoming me as a Professional Handicapper this football season, and would like to give out my Super Bowl play and analysis for FREE as a thank you.
Hope you all have a great Super Bowl week and enjoy the game on February 7th!
2015 NFL Record
85 – 71 @ 55% for +6.9 Units
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Carolina Panthers -5.5 -115
There’s no denying that Carolina is the ‘better’ team in this matchup. So what makes them that? Well based on Relative Strength – basically looks at points for/against vs what the opponents scored/allowed –, a stat I like to use in the playoffs, Panthers are at +10.3 while Broncos are at +4.4 for a variance of ~ 6 in Carolina’s favor. When looking at something simpler, like point-differential, Panthers are +12.0 per game this year while Broncos are +3.7 (keep in mind, this does not adjust for strength of schedule). And when comparing DVOA, advanced efficiency metric by FootballOutsiders, Carolina’s +36% mark in the 2nd half of the year dwarfs Denver’s +16% in that same time frame (weighted DVOA for full year including playoffs has Carolina at +41% while Denver is at +22% so a similar variance). By all accounts, the Panthers are a ‘better’ team. That’s really not a surprise, as we can just take a look at the current spread and make the same determination. So the typical ‘rule of thumb’ in the playoffs is to back the “better” team regardless of the spread, especially if the spread is less than a TD. Typically the point-spread comes into play about 15-18% in the NFL during the regular season. But during a long NFL season there are many let-down spots, where a superior team underperforms and let’s an inferior one cover an ‘inflated’ spread, albeit without winning the game (that’s what defines ‘coming into play’ when we talk about the spread). The playoffs are a little different, as typically you get the ‘best’ effort from each playoff team in each game. I don’t have the data, but intuitively I believe the spread comes into play probably around 10% of the time in the post-season if the number is 7 or less. I think that’s why you often hear people say to just pick the ‘winner’, as great majority of the time the spread won’t matter. Sure, 10% of the time is enough to make or break your season of course so it’s still fairly significant, but when you are dealing with such low impact for one particular game, maybe it’s not a bad idea to ignore the spread, especially if it’s under a touchdown. My point here is this: the spread is pretty accurate. My model has it at -5 Panthers, the Relative Strength comparison has it at -6 Panthers, and the simple Point-Differential has it at -8 Panthers. We can confidently say that there’s truly not much value one way or another at this number, as there shouldn’t be. What I am going to analyze in a little more detail is this particular matchup, and explain why I believe that Carolina will exceed expectations and get the cover in Super Bowl L….I mean Super Bowl 50.
Panthers O vs Broncos D
I think after seeing what this Denver defense did to the Patriots last weekend, a lot of people might assume that the Broncos can repeat the same thing in the Super Bowl. The problem is that this Carolina offense is much different than the Patriots. The Pats lost their #1 and #2 RB’s during the year, and their inability to run the ball was actually a big detriment in the AFC Championship game. Denver’s D-linemen were able to tee-off and pass-rush Brady without much threat of a run game. That won’t be the case against the Panthers. Carolina is a top-10 offense both in the pass-game and in the run-game, and anyone who has watched the Panthers this year knows they love to pound the rock on the ground. While Denver only had to prepare to defend Patriots’ ONE option on offense (passing game), they will have to account for THREE different options against the Panthers - run with the RB, pass, or run with Cam Newton. That drastically changes Denver’s approach. Ware and Miller must be that much more cognizant of the play, and won’t be able to just blindly rush the passer every snap. Additionally, Panthers love to run the zone-read, with Newton reading the edge rusher prior to making a decision on whether to hand off the ball to a RB or to keep it himself. This Panthers offense is very creative in this sense, and I believe their ability to disguise the type of a play they run will go a long way to slowing down Denver’s pass rush.
While Brady got hit 23 times in the AFC Championship game (that’s the most in any game this year and most in quite a few years I believe), I don’t see Denver’s pass-rush having the same impact against Cam Newton. Preparing for one type of play call (pass, pass, and more pass) is one thing, but to prepare to defend 3+ potential plays (RB handoff, pass, QB run, zone-read, reverse with Ted Ginn, etc) at any given time is much more difficult. And I haven’t even mentioned the fact that Cam Newton is exceptional at avoiding pressure and picking up yards down the field with his legs on broken plays or the fact that he’s been a superior passer against the blitz all season long. If Denver’s front-4 isn’t generating enough pass-rush themselves, will the Broncos start blitzing more than they had to against NE (blitzed a season-low amount as there was no need to do so really)? This Broncos’ D has their work cut out for them, and I expect to see a much different result than Denver produced against the Pats. But don’t take my word for it, let’s take a look at how this Panthers’ offense has performed in the post-season so far…facing off against two other elite defenses:
vs Seattle’s 3rd ranked D @ -21% w-DvOA: 24 offensive points in 1 half @ 4.6 YPP
vs Arizona’s 7th ranked D @ -11% w-DvOA: 42 offensive points @ 7.2 YPP
I’ve mentioned only Carolina’s performance in the 1st half against Seattle because the Panthers seemed to take the ‘foot off the pedal’ in that one, after sporting a 31-0 lead at half-time. They ended up running (no pun intended) 41 rushing plays to only 22 pass plays (65% run-rate), and thus bringing their YPP (Yards Per Play) average down to 4.6 as Seattle’s elite run-defense held them to 3.5 YPC average. The “lackadaisical” effort against Seattle in the 2nd half, led to a massive comeback by the Seahawks (a lot of that had to do with Seattle themselves of course as that team was truly an elite squad this year), resulting in a final margin which was much closer than it should have been. I think the Panthers learned from that, because a week later, after taking a 24-7 half-time lead against the Cardinals, they proceeded to score 25 more points in the 2nd half with Cam registering a 12-yard TD run late in the 3rd and a 5-yard TD pass late in the 4th quarters. Panthers didn’t just hand off the ball to Stewart all of second half trying to preserve the lead, they aggressively attacked the Cardinals into submission, with Newton being very active in both halves. I think we should expect a similar approach against the Broncos. Denver has the best D in the league this year with a #1 ranking and w-DvOA of -22% (slightly higher than Seattle’s -21%). I expect Carolina to attack them with everything they have at their disposal and to eventually wear the Broncos out. One key factor in this matchup is Denver’s 31st rank in Power Situations (3rd/4th down and 1-2 yards to go), an area where Carolina’s run-offense ranks 2nd in the league. With the Panthers grinding out yards offensively, I like their chances of picking up crucial first-downs (and maybe even TD’s) in short-yardage situations, especially with a QB like Newton at their disposal. The more 1st downs they can pick up the more Denver’s interior D will wear out, and the slower the pass-rush will be as the game goes on. And if that truly happens to be the case in the 2nd half, don’t expect the Panthers to let-up offensively (like they did against Seattle) but to continue to attack aggressively (like they did against Arizona) until the final whistle. This type of an aggressive approach will be needed as we’ll need the Panthers to cover the spread.
Broncos O vs Panthers D
I’ve spoken a lot about why Denver’s D won’t have the same success in stopping this Panther’s offense the way they did against the Pats, but let’s not forget that there are two “elite” defenses in this matchup. Let’s compare some key advanced stats between the two:
Denver D: -22% wDVOA (#1); -28% pass (#1); -23% run (#4); #1 ASR%; #3 ALY; +4.4 RS-D
Panthers D: -18% wDVOA (#5); -18% pass (#2); -19% run (#6); #11 ASR%; #4 ALY; +3.4 RS-D
RS-D is simply “Relative Strength on Defense” of each team, or the fewer points allowed than the opponents’ average points scored offensively. (So DEN allowed 4.4 fewer points on average than their opponents have averaged offensively this season and Carolina allowed 3.4 fewer). As you can see above, each team’s defenses are very close to one another in quality. Panthers’ one weakness are their corner-backs behind Josh Norman, but if there’s one offense that is least likely to take advantage of that it’s the Broncos. That’s because the biggest edge that the Panthers have in this game is their Defense against Denver’s terrible Offense. I’ve compared the RS-D for each team above, but when you compare each team’s RS-O (same logic, just for offenses), you can see the huge mismatch: Carolina +6.9 while Denver is at exactly +0.0. And don’t forget, a lot of that has to do with Brock Osweiler playing QB, as I’m sure this number was in the negative with Manning under center. Peyton Manning is one of the greatest QB’s of all time, but he’s way past his prime. His -26% DVOA was 36th this season (there are only 32 NFL teams in the league) while his 9 : 17 TD:INT rate was the worst out of any starting quarterback that made more than 5 starts in the league. This is a TO-prone player with no mobility and very limited arm-strength. Carolina’s defense returned an INT for a TD in each of their playoff games so far. Chances are decent (comparatively speaking as pick-6’s are very very very rare of course) that we might see it a 3rd time. At the very least, Carolina should be in a good position to force some TO’s. Their D-line is excellent at stopping the run (4th in run-D DVOA and 3rd in Adjusted Line yards allowed) and against a Denver team with a run-heavy offensive game plan that is a critical factor. Stop the run, pressure Manning on 3rd down, and get your offense on the field as frequently as possible. I think the Panthers will have success doing so. Take a look at how Denver’s offense has fared so far this postseason:
vs PIT: 23 points and 4.6 YPP, needing a comeback against a banged up PIT squad
vs NE: 20 points and 3.8 YPP, barely hanging on in a game where Pats’ offense couldn’t do anything
Steelers and Patriots rank 8th and 15th in defensive w-DvOA respectively. Panthers’ D is much better. Plus the Broncos won’t be playing at home anymore. If they can generate about 20 points per game and about 4.2 YPP at home against PIT/NE, what can we realistically expect at a neutral stadium against a top-5 defense? Honestly, it feels like 16-17 points is Denver’s ceiling in this one. I think it’ll be very difficult for Denver to score much more than that, unless Carolina makes a bunch of mistakes on special-teams and/or turns the ball over offensively.
Final Thoughts
Bottom line here is that Panthers are a better team, they have a huge edge on the offensive end (especially at QB), and they are the ones coming into this game virtually blowing away every single one of their opponents in the playoffs. Both Seattle and Arizona have been tougher opponents than the injury-riddled Pittsburgh (Brown, both RB’s) and Patriots (O-line and running backs), yet the Panthers have made it look very easy, while the Broncos have struggled to pull out their wins. I know typically this kind of analysis is dangerous in the regular season, but I think in the playoffs this gives us a good snapshot of each team’s current form. I believe Carolina is the right side in this one and think this game has a strong potential for a blowout victory. I’ll be backing the Panthers with confidence in Super Bowl L….I mean, Super Bowl 50! (Can’t remember if I used this joke already J )
Good Luck