Will be adding a few props if I see any strong enough for this game.. ton of thanks owed to everybody who supported my plaus throughout the year.. The past 3 weeks may have been possibly my worst 3 week stretch capping the NFL in two seasons, but I'm confident we get one more win and into the 30+ unit range for the season!
3* Carolina Panthers -5.5 -115 *LOSER*
Every square and there mother is on Carolina.. And I looked all week for reasons not to be on them, and take Denver, who I must admit is getting about a point more then I expected they would be getting. In the end, I just can't trust Peyton Manning in what I think is a difficult matchup for him. some people have claimed Peyton to be "back" after he successfully managed the game in two playoff wins.. But it is my opinion that the Broncos defense has to play shutdown defense for him to stand a chance in this game, which I don't anticipate happening for a full 60 min against the leagues number one scoring offense. The Panthers have led at halftime all 18 games this season, and are known to jump on teams early.. and if they force Peyton to come from behind, he's going to be in trouble. The Broncos offense is severely limited and doesn't match up well at all in this game. There offensive line has been subpar all season, and have to face a carolina defense that is elite at pushing the pocket, which is a immobile QB's worst nightmare. The Panthers play shutdown run defense, and Peyton needs a running game to stand a chance. Whichever WR (Sanders or DT) ends up on Norman does not have a plus matchup (although the star WR not covered by Norman will). Also, I cant see Owen Daniels doing much against the fastest linebacking corps in the league. The Broncos turned the ball over more then any playoff team, and now face the leagues best defense at taking the ball away. The Denver D is legit, but expecting them to shut down this Panthers offense, and the hottest QB in the league may be too much to ask for. Will they have a good game, early on they may, but eventually with no offense this defense will break down against a physical Panthers offense, which the Broncos haven't seen in the playoffs (The steelers and patriots run game was basically irrelevant). Denver's pass rush is elite, but now has to deal with a dual threat QB and run heavy team that forces you to stay disciplined, which is a complete 180 from attacking Brady in the pocket last week. I looked for reasons to take denver, but couldn't find them, and am firing on Carolina to win Super Bowl 50 by at least a touchdown.
PROPS (ALL PROPS 1/2 UNIT UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED, WILL NOT BE COUNTING PROPS TOWARDS MY SEASON RECORD BUT WILL COUNT THEM TOWARDS UNITS, JUST LIKE I DID FOR FUTURES)
Carolina scores first ten points -170 *LOSER*
Carolina is 15-3 this season at scoring the first ten points of the game. They have been dominant in most first halves, and I think it's more likely that they start with the ball then they don't, but it isn't a guerantee. Game manager Peyton is likely to try to avoid turnovers in the beginning and play a conservative game.. I think carolina gets to 16-3 at scoring the first ten points after this one.
Ronnie Hillman under 39.5 rushing yards -130 *WINNER*
During the second half of the season, it's become apparent that CJ anderson is clearly the best back on this roster. Against this physical carolina defense, who has the fastest linebackers in the NFL, you aren't gonna beat them with speed.. You need to run right at them, which is what Anderson does and Hillman does not. These are hillmans post season carries.. 5, 4, 0, 9, -1, 5, 1, 1, 1, -1, -4, 3, 3, 5, 7, 0, -1, 7, -1, -1, 2, 1, 4, 0, 2, 3, 0. (2.00 YPC). Anderson is also the better pass catcher which means he should be on the field for third down runs as well. Just can't see hillman being much of a factor in this game and I think this number is way off.
Cam Newton over 41.5 rushing yards -140 *LOSER*
Mike Shula's advice from his dad before the game? "Put the ball in cams hands" I think we see a lot of running from Cam today, especially since he doesn't have plus matchups in the WR/CB matchups. The Broncos allow the third most rushing yards for QB's in the league, and play predominately man coverage, which allows running lanes for the QB.
1* Panthers second half -5 *LOSER*
Cant write many thoughts but think it's obvious Carolina is the better team, but just making more mistakes.