Everyone has started their Football preparation, and we are all getting ready to fire. I have always been a big fan of NFL (and College) Season Wins and I find these have some of the biggest edges out there (I think Teddy Covers' Season Win Report has hit around 70% over 100 plays for over a decade, 11-1-1 on the best bets). The higher win rate occurs because the season is so long, that if you have the 'right' handicap, you are much more likely to win your bet, since you get to play 16 games, not just one. (In the NBA and MLB, it is even stronger with even longer seasons).
Of course, things can change DURING the season, and good bets can turn bad. In particular, you have to be really careful in the MLB and NBA as bad teams often can tank/trade late in the season ruinging 'over' bets. Further, injuries can of course ruin good 'over' bets.
Despite this, books are well aware that the sharps WILL beat them on these season wins bets. Given this, many books have chosen to go to -115 pricing on these bets. While I respect that they can do this, I don't agree with it. I really think the best books will do just fine booking these bets at -110 pricing. You get to hold the money for 5 months after all, and the key is just to stay on top of things and not get hit with 4 limit bets......if a sharp plays Vikings OVER 7-110 vs. you, move to OVER 7-140 right away (or OVER 7.5 +110). Yes, he could turn right around and lock in a profit, but who cares, you get to where the number should be, and then you earn on everyone else betting the prop.
I have always talked about what a great job the Westgate (Hilton) does with their book, and it is great to see them continue to price all their season win stuff at -110 pricing juice. I know the Westgate just went through an enormous investment/remodel in their book, and I can speak for all of Las Vegas how excited we are to see the changes. If you are looking for a great place to bet futures, the Westgate IS your no1 choice (especially if you like good teams "over" as they tend to have the very best lines on things like Packers OVER 11, etc).
Football is almost here. Time to load the cannons......... I likely will be firing on official season win's bets next week.
On the handicapping front, I am +10 units since the All Star Break, and ready to get RED HOT. CFL Friday Game is UP......I wouldn't wait......line is likely to move!
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