I've been reading and listening to a lot of stuff about the big game and there are a lot of people, whose opinions I respect, that are lined up on SEATTLE because of the tendency for teams with superior defenses and running games to dominate in Super Bowls but I'll have to take the SQUARE side on this one as I believe Seattle's defense is a bit overrated and their offense, which lacks a big threat outside of Lynch can be shutdown by a pretty good NEG defense. I initially liked the under in this game but the PATS tendency to put up big numbers against the league's better defenses and the tendency of Superbowl games to get away from teams leaves me with no opinion on the total for this game. However, I do think there might be an opportunity to play the under for the first half as the PATS have a history of playing the first quarter conservatively, zero points in the first quarter over the last five SuperBowl games; and the HAWKS, who have played much better offensively in the second half of games recently, might start conservatively in attempt to avoid an early interception after Wilson's four interception debacle against the PACKERS.
With Seattle on deck the PATS will have played Football Outsiders' 4 top ranked defenses and so far they've done an excellent job putting up 37 points against Buffalo, 34 points against Detroit, and 43 points against Denver. Note, I didn't include the season finale against the BILLS as it was a meaningless week 17 match up with the PATS having locked up the home field advantage through out the playoffs. The PATS have the tendency to use a lot of spread offenses against the better defenses in the league and Brady's numbers in these games actually surpass the numbers he put up against lesser defenses.
As for Seattle's defense, I don't think its as good as last year's and its numbers have been bolstered by a dog's breakfast of offenses they faced since week 7 of the regular season. The recipe for beating the PATS in the big game has been to put a ton of pressure with a four man rush and the HAWKS did much the same last year against Manning and the Broncos, but I think the HAWKS pass rush is a notch or two below last years and the stats bare this out. Also, Seattle's run defense has been a bit tattered in the playoffs giving up over 130 yards in each game so I think the PATS will have a modicum of success running the ball which will help to open up the passing game.
On defense, the PATS will be able to play man on the corners and move more defenders down into the box giving the PATS an X's and O's advantage and thus being able to neutralize Lynch. As long as the PATS can keep Lynch in check I like their chances as SEAHAWKS wide receivers don't pose a big threat and they will have problems playing from behind. Still it's hard to ignore HAWKS ATS numbers of late especially against opponents with a winning percentage so I wouldn't be surprised if they won a close game, but I'd be shocked if they blew out the PATS especially when considering the roll NEG is on, the caliber of coaching and their history of playing close games in the Superbowl. On the otherhand, it's quite possible that NEG could win this game going away, especially if they stop Lynch.
INTANGIBLES: I'm wondering how badly banged up Sherman and Thomas are and what effect it will have on the outcome of the game. Hard to say until they line up and start hitting. Turnovers: well, whoever wins the turnover battle usually wins the big game but neither team holds a significant edge here. Special teams might be the decider in a close hard fought game and NEG holds the edge here.
BETS so far ...
NEG - game
NEG - 1H 'pickem'
2nd HALF + OT (-1/2) OVER 1st HALF (-115)