Super Bowl Overall:
It will be interesting to see if one team becomes the clear favorite as gameday approaches … since the favorite has won 33 of the prior 48 Super Bowls (69%)
Underdog 6-1 ATS in last 7 Super Bowls
24 OVERS and 23 UNDERS in 47 prior Super Bowls (no logged total for first SB)
(+1) Seahawks vs. Patriots
Only 5 prior Super Bowls have been so close that the spread was LESS THAN a field goal.
Seattle opened 2.5 point favorite, but heavy early action on New England moved line early … and has stayed steady since.
Vegas Power Rankings for teams EVEN
Super Bowl experience considered EVEN
Effect of Deflategate?
Handicappers are discounting the idea that the controversy will be a distraction
but
some handicappers are wondering if they should downgrade Pats performance this season IF they benefited from deflated balls (better throwing and less fumbles)
With game in Arizona, slight advantage for Seattle
(easier for fans to travel … extra familiar with stadium playing Cardinals at Arizona each season)
Winner of turnover battle in Super Bowl history: 36-3 SU
Last 10 seasons, Seattle on road: 42% (36-49-1 ATS)
but Seattle’s last 21 on road: 15-6 ATS
Last 20 times Seattle an underdog, lost against the spread only THREE TIMES
Seattle: 34-15-1 ATS overall last 50 games
Seattle in December or later: 19-5-1 ATS (last four seasons)
Seattle: 20-7-1 ATS vs. teams with a winning record
Seattle vs Non-Div foes: 30-14-1 ATS
Prior 8 Super Bowl Champions had won ZERO playoff games the next year.
Seattle D-line is much thinner than last year.
In response, Seattle has slowed the game down with a more conservative offense (ending the regular season the second slowest pace in the NFL).
Natural Super Bowl game pace is even slower (commercials and longer halftime) … which could help mitigate Seattle’s DL depth issues.
Seattle’s defense has struggled against power running … if Pats emphasize such an approach, the tempo of the Super Bowl could be surprisingly slow.
Seattle continued to run even when behind against Green Bay … a clear sign of confidence in running game, but also possible sign of lack of confidence in receivers.
Most Super Bowls are coached conservatively early … a reason that many Pros who like Under will play under 1Q or 1H.
Seattle strength of schedule somewhat overrated … played 3 games against back-up QBS (Arizona, Philly) and SF twice after team had seemingly given up on their Coach.
Russell Wilson an extremely effective runner. Usually his running is kept to a minimum to avoid taking big hits. Will likely be willing to take the risk to run more in the Super Bowl.
Patriots 4-11 ATS last 15 playoff games
Patriots have not won a playoff game away from home since the 2006 season
5 New England Super Bowls during Brady/Belichick era:
Pats have scored ZERO points in the first quarter
Opponents have scored only 15 points
Average 1Q score: 3-0
The Patriots have won eight games this season by at least 22 points
Wiseguys like to fade popular teams
but that hasn’t worked against New England
If you had bet $1000 AGAINST the Pats & Bellichick every game since Brady’s first start, you’d be DOWN $51,000!
(Patriots) NFL teams scoring 40+ points in the playoffs are on a 4-23 Against The Spread losing run their next game
Prop Handicapping
Looking at the big picture, many pros believe both teams will play at a slow offensive pace … which tends toward unders.
Also, since these teams are inclined not to turn the ball over, that would likely result in a low variance game – which also tends towards unders.
Consider how much better each team’s CBs are compared to the other team’s receivers … another reason to look under on passing props.
Recreational bettors overemphasize the recent past.
Last 3 Super Bowls have all had a Safety
but historically only 1 of 14 NFL games have a safety.
If you shop, you can find NO Safety at -550
(a cheap price seemingly taking advantage of the public’s recency bias)
ACTION
An estimated $10 BILLION is projected to be bet on Super Bowl XLIX worldwide!
Over HALF of adult Americans are expected to have some money at risk on the game.
Less than 1% of the total amount bet is expected to be wagered legally in Nevada.
90% of overall SB 49 action in Las Vegas will come from recreational (non-professional) bettors.
This is highest percentage of recreational bettors for any American sporting event.
Vegas Wins 92% of the Time!
Nevada has kept separate Super Bowl accounting for 24 years:
Vegas has won money (in net) 22 years, with bettors winning money only twice.
COIN TOSS
48 prior Super Bowls: exactly 24 heads; 24 tails!
NFC has won 15 of the last 17 coin tosses
Bettors favors Heads so much that some sportsbooks are actually making it cheaper to bet Tails in an effort to the even action.