Try explaining to the folks from the non betting world that you are wagering on the halftime show at the Super Bowl and see what kind of reaction you get. It won't be pleasant. With a smug sense of superiority they won't hesitate to make it known they see this as the action of a degenerate. But, you defensively explain: think about it like this.....you could walk into any sports book right now and probably bet a million dollars on the outcome of the game while you couldn't bet more than 500 dollars on this prop. There's a reason for that. When sportsbooks feel confident that their lines are accurate, ie they will split the result 50/50, they are willing to take bigger bets. When they are unsure if they have an edge with their offering they get defensive and manage their risk accordingly by taking smaller wagers. It's the same logic behind non-major college basketball and the WNBA being positive EV for skilled bettors. The true degenerate is betting the point spread in the Super Bowl. Makes sense right? Of course it does. But it doesn't matter. None of this will register with your non betting friends and family members. They are convinced you are throwing your money away. Don't let their disapproval deter you. It will just make it that much sweeter when you cash.
I've never had an interest in fashion. I think Steve Jobs had fashion figured out: don't worry about it and just wear the same damn thing every day. However, come Sunday my passion for fashion will be unmatched. Why? Because I am betting that Katy Perry won't be wearing a dress or skirt at the beginning of halftime.
I did a deep dive into this and I am convinced that betting both pants and shorts is +EV. Historically the Super Bowl halftime show has involved controversy. Whether it's Janet Jackson's wardrobe malfunction or M.I.A.'s middle finger it seems like being offended by the Super Bowl halftime show has become the new national past time.
Won't somebody please think of the children!
With Katy Perry's reputation and image (remember she kissed a girl and she liked it) you would think we are in store for some more Monday morning controversy. Not so fast my friend. Check out this article from the Dailymail:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-2928610/I-don-t-problem-girl-ll-Super-Bowl-Katy-Perry-s-preacher-dad-called-devil-child-says-ll-cheer-halftime-show.html
In it Katy Perry's dad, a former preacher, hints that she may tone things down for the NFL.
The article then links to a video clip of Katy being interviewed about the performance. In it she says
"Well here's my intention, is that, everyone talks about the music and nothing else. And uh or everything else is secondary. Um, so there's no trying to sabotage myself. I have no other motive besides the music. .....I will control myself. I know the responsibility I have been given for twelve and a half minutes. After those twelve and a half minutes I'll do whatever else I want to do."
Combine her quote above with her following interview and you will see why it's unlikely she will start the show in a dress or skirt.
The key takeaway from that interview is when she said "The entrances and exits of this show will be something you have never seen." While she said that the B-roll footage showed two separate instances of her descending from the rafters at her shows. This is likely what she means by her entrance. One shot shows her almost completely horizontal while she is being lowered. Another shows her sitting on a swing being lowered while attached to balloons. Wearing a dress or skirt during her entrance opens up the possibility that over 100 million people will be able to see up it in HD. When you consider she wants to avoid any possible controversy it becomes obvious she will not be wearing a dress or skirt to start the show. In one of the entrances they showed she is wearing a body suit that extends past her knees however in the other entrance it does look like she is wearing a skirt but it's hard to tell for sure. That doesn't concern me. We know her game-plan. She is playing it safe on Sunday. Finally in one of her interviews when asked about her costumes she says they will be graphic. This is extremely misleading. She is using the term graphic the way it is used in 'graphic design'. Graphic is often understood to mean explicit but that is not how she is using the term here. I think this also makes it less likely she will be in a skirt. A skirt leaves less fabric to show off a design. That's why I wouldn't be surprised if it's a body suit.
My thesis is that she will not be in a skirt to start the show. I can't be sure if she will be in pants or shorts so I am betting both. The odds are such that betting both pants and shorts provides a nice payday for us if one of them hits. We just have to hope the books don't weasel out of paying by claiming something absurd like a body suit doesn't count as pants.
There's no better feeling than winning a bet by halftime and enjoying the conclusion of the game stress free. That's exactly what we plan to do here. The rest of the world will be sweating out a coin flip while we root for a good game.
Who's the degenerate now?
OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATION
PANTS (BELOW THE KNEES) +350
SHORTS (ABOVE THE KNEES) +225
Note: I also put a wager on the no for whether or not she will show cleavage.