The theory sounds good. Just find some SB props that are close to being a coinflip.....and bet any + money prop! The 'dog' typically has more value in most sports, why not in SB Props?
However, THE OPPOSITE is typically true in SB prop betting. Most -220/+180 type props by example, are about breakeven to bet the -220, and a complete disaster to bet the +180. The ultimate example of course is the extreme 'Will there be OT?" prop that typically closes in Vegas 'no' -800 'yes' +500. You are down 48 units if you bet 'yes' every year. Now naysayers will argue that there has been a safety the last 3 years, but you get the idea. Most recreational players want to bet a little to win a lot. So they ALWAYS gravitate to the + props........with disastrous results.
If a MLB line started at -110 and went to -140 you would like to fade that move typically. However, when looking at obscure prop betting if you see something that does that, the -140 bet is almost always preferred to the +120. The reason is that props often ARE mispriced by 50 and even 100 cents at open, and you want to bet what the pros bet....even at much worse prices.
The exception of course would be the props the public is moving. OF COURSE they are going to bet Brady OVER pass yards, if you see that go to -140, that's likely the exception to the rule.
Bottomline, every year most of my props have MINUS written next to them, not +, as do most of the bets made by the sharps i know. It's not sexy, but it IS the way to go most of the time.
My 1st SB prop bet is UP! I am also the $1 cappper (woohoO!) at pregame, and I have a solid 2* NBA bets bet UP, and we have included that prop bet as a bonus!
http://bit.ly/1dO56ZY