Oakland +7 - Hoping for 7.5 to pop up.
Playing the spot here as Kansas City comes off a big win over Seattle, now has Denver up next week. Nobody wants to go 0-16. Oakland figures to be getting desperate and they have hung around against quality opponents. They covered against New England, San Diego twice, Seattle, and were down 14-13 late in the 3rd against Arizona before losing by 11. Kansas City is not an explosive team. The most Alex Smith has passed for all year was 255 yards. The spot, Oakland's competitiveness against good teams, and the big number are worth a bet imo.
Pats - Lions Under 48
- Since scoring 35 points in week 1 against the Giants, the most the Lions have scored in a game is 24. With this game being played in the cold and Calvin Johnson banged up, its hard to see the Lions getting to 20 here. The Pats allowed 20 to Andrew Luck and 21 to Peyton Manning. On the other side the Detroit defense is exactly the type of defense that has given the Pats trouble; They are capable of getting pressure up the middle with Suh and their Front 7. The Patriots offensive line is a little banged up right now with Marcus Cannon and Ryan Wendell limited in practice. Cameron Fleming, who played 37 snaps @ Indy did not practice with an ankle injury. I really doubt the Pats try to run the ball much on this Lions D, so they won't be able to set up the play action like they did so well on Sunday Night. I think this game is a grinder and stays under the 48.
Browns @ Falcons Over 47
- From David Malinksy's Point Blank, the Cleveland defense faced 87 plays Sunday from the Houston Texans. They could be fatigued going into this one, and to make matters worse, Linebackers Karlos Dansby and Jabaal Sheard were injured and are Out for this game. For the Cleveland offense Josh Gordon will be reinstated which can only help them. I like Hoyer to bounce back inside the dome after a rough week. Luckily for him the Falcons don't have anyone like J.J Watt on their roster.
Earlier in the week the Browns released R.B Ben Tate. It doesn't seem like a big deal because they weren't getting much production from him anyways and it was rumored that he had off the field issues. I forget the exact number but AFC - NFC battles have been going Over the total at about a 60% clip. The Browns did put in a stinker in Jacksonville, but they have averaged 26.6 point per game in their other 3 road games @ Cincy, Pitt, and Tennessee.
The Falcons have one of the worst defenses in the league ranking 23rd in points allowed, 32nd in total yards allowed, 32nd in passing yards allowed, and 24th in rush yards allowed.. Not including their "home" game in London, the Falcons have not had a true home game inside the Georgia Dome since October 12th. Matt Ryan has always played much better at home so I think it makes sense that he and the Falcons offense puts up points against a banged up Cleveland D that was on the field for 87 snaps last week.
Baltimore +3.5 @ New Orleans
Not a ton to add here other than the Saints are overrated and the better team off a bye week, with a good coach, is getting more than a field goal. Drew Brees looks like he has aged and the Saints home field is not what it used to be.