2* Miami +7.5 over Denver
I have been betting Miami very often this year because they are so undervalued in the market. Now, they face the Broncos who are over valued because the public loves betting them. The Dolphins aren't getting any love because they aren't flashy, but their numbers are very good (and why I took them at 40-1 to win the AFC a few weeks back). Offensively, they are 7th in rushing effic and 13th in passing effic. They have the second best defense in the league (behind Det) and are 7th in rushing def effic and 2nd in passing def effic. Denver's defense is nearly just as good as Miami's (4th vs rush and 5th vs pass in efficiency). Miami will be able to stop Denver's run game that is average (17th). Obviously Denver's offense is reliant on Manning and the pass game, but as stated above Mia has one of the best pass defenses in the league. More importantly, the way to contain Denver is to get pressure on Manning, allow him short throws and don't allow YAC (see the Rams last week vs Denv)...and that's precisely what Miami is good at. The Dolphins have the 5th best defensive line and they are tied for 3rd with 30 sacks. The Bronco's offensive line is their weak spot and they have been shuffling players around the last few weeks (and even tried out former OL R. Incognito). Add that to the fact that Denver will likley be without J. Thomas and E. Sanders and I don' see the Broncos scoring many points. My calculated line is Denver -4.5. Give me the Phins plus the points and I am also taking 15% of my straight wager on the money line.
2* Denver/Miami 1st half under
Play at 24 +
See analysis above.
1* Minnesota +10 over GB
When a team looks unstoppable and impossible to bet against, that is usually a good time to play against them. GB has looked great as of late, hence the inflated numbe in this game. My calculated line is 8.5, and when the books give me an extra 1.5 points (and a key number) I have to take it. The Vikings strength is their run game (3rd in efficiency) and the will face a Packer run D that is 21st in rushing defensive effic. The Packers strength is their pass game, but Minnesota's pass D is solid at 10th in efficiency. The Pack have been fortunate in fumble luck (+4). There is a great trend favoring the Vikings playing against big favorite teams off 2+ wins vs a losing team. I think the Vikes pound the rock and get the cover.