(-4) DETROIT (5 - 2) vs. ATLANTA (2 - 5) - 10/26/2014, 9:30 AM – LONDON
Detroit Offensive injuries
Calvin Johnson injury status?
Out last two week
Targeted only 3 times in two weeks prior to that
(but was effective as a decoy)
Offense not able to get down field without C. Johnson
13 of 18 passes in first half last week 5 yards or less from line of scrimmage
Detroit offensive injuries overview:
TE Pettigrew has teased but never emerged as a consistent tight end force. However, the Lions have a cluster injury problem at the position with Eric Ebron and Joe Fauria also not likely to play because of injuries. Calvin Johnson probably is a no-go again with Detroit having a bye next week and now Reggie Bush might not play because of an ankle injury (via Pregame.com’s Stephen Nover)
Falcons O-Line
Before last week …
Lost Sam Baker, Mike Johnson, Joe Hawley and Lamar Holmes.
Jake Matthews has played below his usual standard because of an ankle injury.
Last week … C Konz hurt (to be replaced by undrafted rookie)
Falcons O-line is devastated to a degree that’s hard to over-emphasize.
The Falcons have nearly given up on running the ball, with only 29 attempts the last two games, while Ryan was sacked nine times in that span.
Playing against perhaps the best D-line in football this week.
***OTHER
Detroit after a win: covered the next game only 5 of 21 times
Detroit on 2 or more game winning streak: 8-15 ATS
Saints up by 13 with 4:00 minutes left last week vs. Detroit (eventually losing the game)
(Lions) NFL teams the week AFTER playing the Saints, teams are 53-88-4 ATS (since 2005)
Detroit (overall since 2011): 22-33-1 ATS
Lions have made only 6 of 16 FG attempts this season (no team missed 10 attempts in all of 2013 – via David Malinsky)
(Detroit) NFL favorites 13-4 ATS if both teams have a bye next week (via Power Sweep)
Falcons +2 turnovers vs. Ravens (Bal won by 22)
Prior to last week, there had been 1,486 (-2) turnover games (since 1989)
Only 10 times did the -2 team win the game by 20+ points (.67% of the time)
Next game after a loss: Atlanta 26-12 ATS last 38 (5-9 ATS last 14)
Off a loss of 6 or more points: 20-7 ATS last 27
(started 17-0 ATS, but 3-7 ATS since)
Falcons 4 straight ATS losses (tied with Washington for most in NFL)
Atlanta passing defense (yards per attempt): #32
Detroit defense: #1
(was +3, now +2.5) MINNESOTA (2 - 5) at TAMPA BAY (1 - 5) - 10/26/2014, 1:00 PM
Tampa’s Struggles
Tampa 13-33 ATS at home
Tampa only team outgained every game this season (6 this season, 9 straight overall)
Tampa defense: #32
Tampa scoring defense: #32
TB defense on pace to yield the most points in NFL history
TB defense has yielded almost 1000 yards last two games
Strong Spot for Tampa
Tampa off bye
(Bucs) NFL teams off 30+ loss before bye: 16-4 ATS
Vikings Passing Offense Horrible
Minnesota passing offense: #32
Minnesota TD passes: 4 (least in NFL; no other team with less than 7)
Minnesota INTs: 11 (most in NFL)
Minnesota worst QB rating in NFL
***OTHER
Minny Bridgewater less than average after strong first game
(Vikings) NFL road dogs off road loss: 62% (163-99-3 since 2003)
Early line (before last week’s games): Tampa Bay pk
Tampa picking up new defensive scheme slowly:
Take a look at the following quotes about the playbook, and note that they came before the Buccaneers took the field against the Ravens. From LB Lamonte David – “It is a lot more intricate than people realize. Each guy has a different zone to protect, but certain passing routes change the way you fit up the zones … There’s a lot of little details, and there are still some kinks that we have to fix, particularly before the snap and things like that.” And from Pro Bowl CB Alterraun Verner – “This is a completely different type of Cover 2 scheme. They’re asking me to do some things here that I’ve never done before in my entire football career.” (via Pregame.com’s David Malinsky)
Bills -2 turnovers vs Vikings (yet Buf won the game)
Since 1989, NFL teams -2 turnovers have won only 18% of games
Vikings in last 3 weeks have yielded 19 sacks
(+6) CHICAGO (3 - 4) at NEW ENGLAND (5 - 2) - 10/26/2014, 1:00 PM
Chicago Turmoil
Chicago Bears guard Kyle Long criticized fans at Soldier Field for booing Sunday as the team trotted into the locker room down 14-0 to the Miami Dolphins, but on Monday admitted "it was wrong for me to point fingers at the fans." (via ESPN)
Associated Press game recap from last week described the Bears as “listless and out of sorts”
Bears have covered only 7 of last 23 games ATS
NE at home – Chicago on road
Pats at home when NOT laying double digits: 12-3 ATS
New England has won 40 of 43 regular season home games (SU)
Road team in New England games: covered only 7 of last 25 games
Road team in Bears games: 6-1 ATS
Chicago: 5th road game in 7 weeks
Belichick with extra prep time
Off Thursday Game during Belichick era:
8 games: only 1 loss SU and only 1 loss ATS
Look ahead?
Patriots host Denver next week
***OTHER
Jets outgained Pats by 100 yards overall (outrushing them 218 to 63). Jets won time of possession by 21 minutes (41 mins to 19 mins)
Wiseguys like to fade popular teams
but that hasn’t worked against New England
If you had bet $1000 AGAINST the Pats & Bellichick every game since Brady’s first start, you’d be DOWN $48,000!
Bears in games that over/under total greater than 44: 16-43 ATS
NE passing defense: #1
NE turnover margin: +9 (second best in NFL)
(+7) ST LOUIS (2 - 4) at KANSAS CITY (3 - 3) - 10/26/2014, 1:00 PM
Rams lucky and tired?
Seattle outgained St. Louis 463 yards to 272
Rams off a physical game vs. San Fran, and now face a physical game (off MNF short rest) vs. Seattle
Stats strongly favor KC
KC rushing offense: #3
KC passing defense: #2
Rams scoring defense: #31
Rams defense with 4 sacks (worst in NFL, but 3 last week)
Bad Spot for KC
Chiefs: 5-20 ATS as a home favorite
***OTHER
Jeff Fischer strong as underdog throughout his career
winning 59% of the time against the Vegas number when getting points [92-64 ATS]
Wiseguys even more down on QB Austin Davis than you might expect – feeling as if the film has exposed his weaknesses in a way that will make it hard for him to be effective moving forward.
(Rams) NFL team off win as a home dog: 42% since 1994 [230-312-17]
(Rams) NFC West teams as underdogs: 23-12-1 ATS
KC: Alex Smith last 48 games as a starter: 34-13-1 SU
(-5.5) SEATTLE (3 - 3) at CAROLINA (3 - 3 - 1) - 10/26/2014, 1:00 PM
Reaction to Seattle Losses?
Vegas considers Seattle to be clearly the 2nd best team in NFL
Seattle outgained St. Louis 463 yards to 272
Big Match-up Edge
Seattle offense rushing yards per attempt: #1
Carolina defense – rushing yards per attempt: #32
Seattle Bounce Back
Seattle off 2 straight losses: 29-7 ATS (7-1 ATS under Pete Carroll)
***OTHER
Seattle (starting in 2005): 68% ATS at home (54-25-2)
On road during same period: 41% (33-47-1)
If simply play on at home, against on road: 101-58-3 (64% winners)
Seattle last 16 on road: 12-4 ATS
Seattle: 26-11-1 ATS overall last 38 games
Seattle vs Non-Div foes: 27-10-1 ATS
Carolina biggest Vegas downgrade off of last week’s games
Cam Newton rushed for 107 yards last week (more carries than all other games this season combined). Strong sign that he’s getting past the injuries that hobbled him earlier in the season. The entire offense improves significantly if Newton is a true duel-threat.
Against GB: 7 rushes for 41 yards (5.9 average)
Carolina at home: 10-3 ATS
Early line (before last week’s games): Seattle -3.5
Seattle #31 in defensive sacks per opponent dropbacks
Seattle D-line not as deep this year – which increases the chance of wearing down as the season progresses.
(+3) BUFFALO (4 - 3) at NY JETS (1 - 6) - 10/26/2014, 1:00 PM
Jets FIRST 1-6 teams to be favored over winning team
(database goes back 25 years)
Every other 1-6 team playing a winning team has been 4 point underdogs or more
Harvin Factor
Harvin trade likely not a big deal on the field
(expected to be limited to 25-30 snaps this week)
but the positive emotion that “management is still trying”
should add to the team’s effort level in the short-term
Bills at RB
Bills lost top two RBs to injury last week:
Must reply upon Bryce Brown (0 carries this season) and Anthony Dixon (14 carries this season before last week; averaged 74 yards PER SEASON the prior three seasons)
Without running backs, Orton will likely need to be more than a game manager
Orton’s last 34 starts: 10-24 straight-up
Jets Horrible vs. Pass
Jets Defense – opponent QB rating: #32
Jets passing yards per attempt: #32
Jets defense has yielded 18 TD passes (worst in NFL)
Jets defense has only 1 INT (worst in NFL)
Keep in mind QBs Jets have faced during 6 game losing streak:
Rogers, Cutler, Stafford, Rivers, Manning, Brady
***OTHER
Jets one ATS cover is in NFL
(every other team with at least 2)
Jets outgained Pats by 100 yards overall (outrushing them 218 to 63). Jets won time of possession by 21 minutes (41 mins to 19 mins)
Jets off Thursday game (extra rest)
11 of last 12 losses by Jets by a TD or more
Jets as a home favorite: 53-89 ATS
Geno Smith career: 19 TDs; 35 turnovers
Geno Smith’s career
on any play with 10 or more yards to go (for a 1st down)
he has 3 TDs and 22 interceptions
To give some perspective, Vegas would upgrade Jets by 2-points if Mark Sanchez were quarterback.
Early line (before last week’s games): Jets pk
Road team in Buffalo games: covered only 7 of last 24 games
Jets scoring: #28
Bills defense with 24 sacks (best in NFL)
Buffalo defense – rushing yards per attempt: #3
Bills -2 turnovers vs Vikings (yet Buf won the game)
Since 1989, NFL teams -2 turnovers have won only 18% of games
(-6) MIAMI (3 - 3) at JACKSONVILLE (1 - 6) - 10/26/2014, 1:00 PM
Miami biggest road favorite since 2008
Jags D
Jags D has held opposing offenses to 2 touchdowns the last 3 games. In the four games priors, Jags yielded 38 points per game. Wiseguys feel good about some new faces starting to better understand the defensive system. That said, there were a few Jags defensive injuries late in last week’s game (most notably the underrated Paul Posluszny) that has the Wiseguys cautious about their optimism.
Reaction to first win?
(Jags) NFL team off first win, that were 0-6 SU or worse: 12-2 ATS their next game
Dolphins Stats Better than many realize
Miami rushing offense: #4
Miami defense: #4
Miami passing defense (yards per attempt): #1
***OTHER
Jags at home: 5-14 ATS
QB Bortles: 5 games played – 12 turnovers
Jags Denard Robinson: 22 carries, 127 yards last week
Games played Week 8 or before: Jags 2-20 straight-up (7-15 ATS)
(Jags) NFL team off win as a home dog: 42% since 1994 [230-312-17]
Road team in Miami games 60-40 ATS
(Miami) NFL teams away favs after away dogs: 17-5-1 ATS
Jags sacked 29 times (worst in NFL)
(was -2.5, now -3) HOUSTON (3 - 4) at TENNESSEE (2 - 5) - 10/26/2014, 1:00 PM
Tenn QB
QB Zack Mettenberger to start.
Timing curious for a change, with Tennessee’s bye next week.
Could be a sign of real optimism – but first start likely a challenge.
Tenn at home
Titans have not covered a game at home in OVER one calendar year (9 games since 9/29/13)
Houston’s Stats
Houston outgained Pittsburgh last week (the first team the Texans had outgained this season)
(Houston) NFL teams favored week after playing Mike Tomlin’s Steelers: 15-37 against the spread.
***OTHER
Houston QB Fitzpatrick started 9 games for Tennessee last season
(Houston) NFL teams away favs after away dogs: 17-5-1 ATS
Houston off MNF
Houston 5-1 vs. Tennessee
Titans: 2-10 ATS last 12 games (covered last week)
Home team in Titans games has covered only 6 of last 23
Vegas ranks Tennessee #29 in league
(was +1, now -1) BALTIMORE (5 - 2) at CINCINNATI (3 - 2 - 1) - 10/26/2014, 1:00 PM
Bengals stats shocking
Bengals outgained by 380 yards this season (only Raiders, Jags, Bucs worse)
Cincy defense: #31
Baltimore scoring defense: #1
Bengals at home
Cincy at home: covered 11 of 12 regular season games
Bengals perfect 8-0 ATS at home during 2013 regular season. How rare is that? Cincinnati only 5th team in last 25 seasons to do so.
Crowd frenzy is not main reason from home success – all games not even selling out.
Cincy vs. Baltimore
Cincy/Baltimore: Favorite has covered 5 of 6 in series
Dalton vs. Baltimore: 7 TDs, 11 INTs in his career
***OTHER
Baltimore at Pittsburgh next week
AJ Green is status?
Road team in Cincinnati games have covered only 5 of last 25
Colts 506 yards. Bengals 135 yards.
Bengals +2 turnovers vs. Colts (Cin lost by 27)
Ravens -2 turnovers vs. Falcons (Bal won by 22)
Prior to last week, there had been 1,486 (-2) turnover games (since 1989)
Only 10 times did the -2 team win the game by 20+ points (.67% of the time)
But it happened last week to both Baltimore (unlikely win) and Cincinnati (unlikely loss)
(+2.5) PHILADELPHIA (5 - 1) at ARIZONA (5 - 1) - 10/26/2014, 4:05 PM
Both teams hot
Philly has won 12 of last 14 regular season games.
Arizona last 15 games:
12-3 SU
Lost only 3 against the spread
But stats don't back it up ...
Eagles have been outgained this season (-15 yards)
Arizona has been outgained this season (-240 yards)
Vegas Ranks Arizona tied for #13 in NFL (only .5 points better than average team)
Arizona at home
Home vs. non Division (since last season): Arizona in 7 non-division home games are undefeated straight up and covered the spread in net by 63 points
Cards at home last 10+ seasons (53-40 ATS)
***OTHER
Eagles have scored seven TDs from their defense or special teams, while not allowing any.
Eagles have yielded only 2 sacks their last 5 games
Eagles off bye
(Eagles) NFL teams off bye who held last opponent to FG or less: 3-15-1 ATS (via Power Sweep)
Check status of Arizona DL C. Campbell (key player)
Arizona passing defense: #31
Arizona rushing defense: #1
Arizona defense – rushing yards per attempt: #1
Arizona INTs thrown: 1 (least in NFL)
(-3) INDIANAPOLIS (5 - 2) at PITTSBURGH (4 - 3) - 10/26/2014, 4:25 PM
Only 8th time Steelers home dog in regular season since 2000
Colts surging
Colts: 5 straight covers (most in NFL)
Colts have outgained opponents by 992 yards combined this season. No other team better than +473 yards
Colts offense: #1
Colts scoring: #2
Colts defense: #3
Vegas now ranks Colts as 4th best team in league (4 point upgrade since start of season; which is 2nd biggest upgrade behind Dallas)
But market is adjusting:
Early line (before last week’s games): Colts -1
Pittsburgh Pass D
Pittsburgh: Extra thin Corner after Ike Taylor injury
Since injury, Pittsburgh has faced:
Mike Glennon
Blake Bortles
Brian Hoyer
Ryan Fitzpatrick
***OTHER
Pittsburgh off MNF
Houston outgained Pittsburgh last week (the first team the Texans had outgained this season)
Pittsburgh hosts Baltimore next week
Steelers scored 24 points in the final 3:08 of the second quarter last week. Their offense had scored 20 points in its previous 169:46 of game time.
Much better at home over Luck’s career (reg season and playoffs)
Won 17-4 SU (15-6 ATS) at home; 11-10 SU on road (12-9 ATS)
Colts 506 yards. Bengals 135 yards.
Andrew Luck: 26-13 ATS during regular season in his career
Dave Malinksy feels as if Andrew Luck has played better than any QB in the NFL this season.
Colts -2 turnovers vs. Bengals (won by 27)
Prior to last week, there had been 1,486 (-2) turnover games (since 1989)
Only 10 times did the -2 team win the game by 20+ points (.67% of the time)
(+6.5) OAKLAND (0 - 6) at CLEVELAND (3 - 3) - 10/26/2014, 4:25 PM
How bad is Oakland?
Oakland’s worst start to a season since 1962.
Oakland has scored more than 14 points only once this season
(Raiders) NFL winless underdogs [week 6 or later]: 63% (97-56-5 since 1992)
East Coast:
Raiders have lost 14 straight games in the Eastern Time Zone (5-9 ATS)
But note this game is a later start (easier for West Coast teams)
Browns first non-1:00 ET start this season
Browns O-Line
First game for Browns without Center Mack: 30 rushes from 69 yards.
***OTHER
The SU winner of the last 34 Cleveland games has covered 30 times (spread has mattered only four times)
Browns defense: #29
Oakland rushing offense: #32 (69 ypg 13 yards less than #31)
Oakland sacked only 5 times (best in NFL)
(+1.5) GREEN BAY (5 - 2) at NEW ORLEANS (2 - 4) - 10/26/2014, 8:30 PM
Saints could easily be 6-1
Losses to Atlanta, Cleveland, Detroit easily go either way
Saints up by 13 with 4:00 minutes left last week vs. Detroit (eventually losing the game)
Saints with 5th best yardage differential in NFL (+380)
Green Bay has been outgained this season (-261)
Saints off a road loss: 21-5 ATS [from 9/24/2007]
Saints at home
Last 20 games under Coach Payton at home
Saints have lost ONLY ONCE against the spread (18-1-1)
That loss was Week 5 vs. Tampa
First home ATS loss with Payton since 2010 season!
Saints have won and covered 10 straight primetime home games.
First time since 2008 (with Payton coaching) not favored by at least 2 points at home.
*** OTHER
Last 6 games: Aaron Rodgers 17 TD and 0 INTs
Green Bay turnover margin: +10 (best in league)
Packers 21-14-1 ATS as underdogs
The road team in Saints games (coached by Sean Payton)
has covered ONLY 6 of 43 games
Under Coach Payton: 25-15-1 ATS last 41 games
Coach Payton off a loss: 19-7 ATS
Hobbled Jimmy Graham had zero catches last week (on only 2 targets)
Green Bay offense: #25 Green Bay rushing defense: #31
Green Bay defense – opponent QB rating: #1
(+9.5) WASHINGTON (2 - 5) at DALLAS (6 - 1) - 10/27/2014, 8:30 PM
How good are these teams?
Dallas upgraded more than any other team by Vegas since the start of the season – but still considered “only” 8th best team in league.
No team has a bigger disconnect between stats and record than Washington.
Washington: SECOND BEST yardage differential in NFL
Washington offense: #5
As is often the case, turnovers is the driver of the underperformance:
Washington turnover margin: -9 (worst in league)
Dallas struggles with success
When Dallas is favored after winning the last game
(giving them another reason to lose focus)
the Cowboys are 3-14 against the spread
(covered in this situation last week)
Dallas as home favorite: covered only 7 of last 27 games
Situation Favors Washington
Dallas favored on MNF: 1-10 ATS
Redskins: 14-4 ATS vs. Cowboys
*** OTHER
The underdog in Dallas games has covered 70% of the time (50-21 ATS the last 4+ seasons)
Dallas – in midst of 5 home games out of 6 games
Dallas: Betting market undervalues impact of offensive line
Cowboys, playing within the division: 21-32 ATS
Washington: 2-13 SU last 15 games (won last week)
Wash: 4 straight ATS losses (tied with Atlanta for most in NFL)
Washington as underdog: 4-12 ATS
Dallas offense: #3
Dallas QB Rating: 4th best in NFL
Dallas on 1st down: 23 rushes. 4 passes.
DeMarco Murray on pace for 424 rushes (which would be an NFL record)
NFL rushing:
1) Cowboys 1118 yards
2) Jets 945 yards
t3) Seahawks 920 yards
t3) Ravens 920 yards
5) DeMarco Murray 913 yards
Dallas struggling on defense:
Allowing 4.9 yards per rush attempt. Only the Browns and Panthers have been worse. The Cowboys have only managed seven sacks on 236 drop-backs by opposing QBs.
Colt McCoy career as starter: 7-13-1 ATS
McCoy analysis (via Pregame.com’s David Malinsky)
The 11-12-128 passing line is tantalizing, and there was what looks like a home run TD pass on paper to Pierre Garcon that brought the Redskins some badly needed momentum in that rally to beat Tennessee. But, he doesn’t possess the arm strength to succeed at this level long-term, and if anything what looked like a flawless statistical performance actually highlighted his very issues. Yes, that first pass to Garcon happened. But it was just a simple short curl route in the flat that turned into a 70-yard TD. The next 11 McCoy passes only generated 58 yards, which is bad enough on the surface, but the fact that 10 of them were completions is something that you can’t live with in this league. Where does a 5.8 per completion put him? Of the 34 QBs that have thrown enough passes to qualify, no one is below 10.1. What happened after the pass to Garcon broke big? This happened
Nine plays, 37 total yards, Punt
Five plays, 15 yards, Field Goal
Three plays, (-6) yards, Punt
10 plays, 49 yards, Field Goal
That is 27 snaps for 95 yards, a meager 3.5 yards per play, against a defense that is absolutely nothing special. The two biggest chunks of yardage on the final scoring drive that won the game were a 22-yard pass interference penalty, and a 12-yard run by Roy Helu. About the only genuine positive that can be said about McCoy through that span is that he did not turn the ball over.