SharkMan23 said:
ST LOUIS RAMS +3.5
EVERYBODY IN THE WORLD ARE ON THE 49ERS SO I WILL TAKE THE SIDE OF THE BOOKIES AND GRAB THE RAMS PLUS THE POINTS.............The Rams boast the # 1 pass defense in the nfl....You read that right look for Kaepernick to make a lot of mistakes here tonight........Niners 16 Rams 17
You have to be very careful when looking at 'total yardage' allowed when determining defensive strength. St Louis has allowed 192 PY per game which is the least in the NFL, but that is because they are allowing 152.5 rushing yards per game, the 2nd worst mark in the NFL. Teams build up a lead on the Rams, and then proceed to run out the clock in the 2nd half leading to this type of a disparity between passing and rushing yards allowed.
Rams allow 29.8 points per game, 30th out of 32 teams in the NFL (only JAX and TB are worse) which is a much better gauge of their true defensive strength. Plus you have to consider the fact that they're allowing 26.5 passing attempts per game, the fewest number in the league. Again, that is NOT due to the strength of their pass D but more so because teams are pounding the ball on the ground against them, while protecting leads.
A better measure to evaluate a team's passD is to use a 'rate statistic' not a 'cumulative statistic'. Using a rate statistic like passing yards allowed per attempts, St Louis ranks 24th in the NFL @ 7.3 PY/A allowed. In addition, the Rams rank dead last in the NFL in ASR% (Adjusted Sack Rate %) and have recorded only 1 sack through the first 4 games of the season, ranking dead last once again. When you use advanced "rate" statistics, on a per play basis, St Louis ranks 31st out of 32 teams in pass defense.
My overall point here is that your logic to back the Rams here is very flawed when you look at just 'total yards' allowed via the pass, and determine that this is a great passD. They are not and maybe you will see that tonight if Kaepernick and San Fran's pass O goes off on the Rams.
Good luck with your wager.