Here is our write-up on Green Bay over Chicago.
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The Bears were dead last in the league in rushing defense last season, allowing an average of 5.36 yards per rush and they were the only team in the league to allow more than five yards per rush. So far this season, they are allowing 5.07 yards per rush. Green Bay has been terrific against similar opponents, going a perfect 12-0 ATS when visiting a team that has allowed at least 4.5 yards per rush season to date, as long as they are not laying more than six points. The SDQL text is:
team=Packers and A and line>=-6 and oS(o:RY)/oS(o:rushes) >= 4.5 and date>=20051030
Note that Green Bay has won each of their last eleven in this spot, despite being the underdog in six of the eleven. Green Bay has covered these 12 games by an average of a healthy 13.3 ppg. Since 2009, they are 6-0, scoring an average of 34.2 ppg.
Green Bay is a character-revealing 8-0 ATS off a loss of fewer than 20 points when facing a team that has more wins on the season, winning each of their last five straight up.
The Packers are also perfect as far back as we can check when the line is within 3.5 of pick’em and they allowed a defensive TD last week, going 7-0 SU and 7-0 ATS. The SDQL text is:
team=Packers and -3.5 <= line <= 3.5 and po:DTD>0
The Bears got an early pick six and this forced the Jets to rely on Geno Smith too much. This got them their second straight win after looking bad against the Bills in their home opener. However, Chicago has historically performed poorly in this spot. The Bears are 0-8 ATS (-10.8 ppg) after a win in which a receiver had a reception of 35+ yards. Check it out with this SDQL text.
team=Bears and max:p:longest reception>=35 and p:W and NB and date>=20111101
Also, Chicago is 0-6 ATS at home after any game in which Matt Forte caught at least five passes and 0-6 ATS at home after a win in which they allowed at least four sacks, falling short of the number by a whopping 18.8 ppg.
Finally, it is worth mentioning that the Bears are a weak 0-7 ATS when they are facing a divisional foe and the line is within 3 of pick. Ouch.
Yes, Eddie Lacy does not have good numbers so far this season. However, the Packers have faced the top three rushing defenses in the league in their first three games. Seattle is ranked number one allowing only 2.78 yards per rush. The Lions are number two at 2.81 yards per carry and the Jets – who were number one in the league last season, are third at 2.84 yards per rush. Lacy should have a breakout day vs the Bears’ weak rushing defense.<p>
MTi’s FORECAST: Green Bay 35 CHICAGO 31
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We're serious about winning. We perform the research with the SDQL and uncover situations that are not already factored into the line. Factors like injuries are already factored into the line and this can't provide line value. We passed on the previous two Monday Night games because we could not find line value. Tonight's game has plenty. We have a double play with a write up similar to the one posted above.