UPDATE: THE CARDINALS WIN! THE CARDINALS WIN! Looks like my analysis isn't just a "fan side of things". The SF DBs got torched, the Cards started slow, played strong in the 2nd half, etc. etc. CONGRATS TO ALL YOU CARDS BACKERS (which I only know of one - and that is "shadrach" - so congrats on your ML bet!)
Why bother with the technicals? I'll just be accused of being a fan, despite the following facts:
- SF's pass rush is overrated with Aldon Smith out. Did you know SF only had 1 sack against Cutler - despite the fact the Bears have an average offensive line? In fact, last week the NYG's pass rush/front 4 looked more fierce than the 49ers pass rush. In fact, it would not surprise me to see the Cards consistently test out how well the 49ers front 7 really is. Arians wasn't afraid last year to test out SEA's front 7- he will do the same running 2 or 3 TE sets on O.
- The 49ers DBs (Cox, Culliver, Ward) all have bulls-eyes. These three DBs are average. Ward will be targeted by the Cardinals just like Jarraud Powers will be targeted by the 49ers.
- The 49ers might be known for running the ball (1st in rushing attempts), but they are average in yards per carry in NFL despite facing teams that are known to be below average against the run. Cards are #3 in rush D, but in the middle of the pack in pass D (thank you, Jarraud Powers!).
- Watch the following matchups: Calais Campbell vs Jonathan Martin; Bobby Massey vs whoever 49ers line up against him. Odds are one or both of these matchups will get exploited heavily, resulting in one (or both) team's failure on O.
- Stanton is a game manager; he will need to work on his timing issues with the Cards WRs as evidenced by last week's NYG/AZ game. Fortunately, if he has time to throw, he can be more accurate than his stats show.
- The typical game for a 49ers/Cards game: It will be close up until the middle/late 4th quarter, then the 49ers will either convert some third and long to put up the final score of the game or the Cards will make a furious rally only to be short by a FG or less. Don't let the previous scores this past year fool you - the 49ers/Cards matchups were closer than advertised.
- In-game leans you might be interested in: take the 49ers first Q, second Q, or halftime. If Cards are down by a TD or more at half, take the Cards 2nd half, regardless of pt spread. The Cards are slow starters, but fast finishers. However, if the Cards are up by more than a TD at half time (very unlikely), take the 49ers 2nd half.
I think the 49ers will win by a very small margin not because of the 49ers run game with Hyde/Gore but because of Kap's feet. The Cardinals historically have had problems with Kap's feet when he abandons the pocket.
I also think the 49ers, at the very least, will win SU simply because history is a factor. SF has a 9-1 SU record the past 10 games. Call it a Cards curse, 49ers luck, or whatever, this factor is very hard to ignore when it simply comes to winning the ball game. As for Harbaugh's ATS record after a loss (something like 10-1?), in this "new" flag-throwing NFL, that statistic is irrelevant; ask Andrew Luck if you don't believe me.